Emerging Markets Economic Outlook One extreme to the other Having been too optimistic on the outlook for the emerging world over much of the past five years, the consensus has now shifted too far in the other direction. Economic and financial vulnerabilities... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Sep.) Inflation in Brazil was unchanged at 9.5% y/y in September, but the headline rate is on course to rise again in October as fuel price hikes recently announced by state-owned oil company Petrobras come... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How we compare with the IMF The IMF downgraded its forecasts for emerging market (EM) growth in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO). While we agree with the IMF that EM growth should rebound next year, we think the IMF has... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Assessing the impact of China’s slowdown on Latin America Latin America is one of the most exposed emerging market regions to the slowdown in China’s economy. The actual impact so far has varied between countries. Venezuela, Peru, and Chile have been hardest... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Recent weakness in Chilean activity a temporary blip Economic activity data from Chile have been weak in recent months, but we don’t think this marks the start of a deeper downturn. The softer data have been largely the result of various temporary... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update TPP is potentially a “big deal” but only over the long term The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement which was announced today may not see the light of day for some years. Assuming, however, that it is eventually implemented, it should have large and... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Aug.) The huge 1.2% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial production in August was driven largely by a steep decline in capital goods production. One factor behind this seems to be the escalating corruption... 2nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM Manufacturing slows further September’s PMI data suggest that manufacturing activity across the emerging world weakened further last month, with export orders particularly subdued. But in the EMs that have been in the spotlight... 1st October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) The pick-up in Brazil’s manufacturing PMI last month, to 47.0 from 45.8 in August, was encouraging, particularly following recent early signs in the hard data that the slump in the economy may be... 1st October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil reinstates FX swap programme as real fall spooks policymakers 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil fuel price hikes to give further push to inflation 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil’s crisis deepens Brazil has slipped deeper into crisis over the past month. The slump in the real economy has gathered pace, with our GDP Tracker now suggesting the output could have contracted by up to 4% y/y in Q3... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Dollar bond credit spreads unlikely to balloon We do not expect the stripped spread of the JP Morgan EMBI Global Index to rise much further. But with US Treasury yields likely to increase substantially in the months ahead, we think the overall... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth slower, but not collapsing Emerging market (EM) growth has slowed further recently, but there is no sign of the collapse that some are talking about. In fact, there is tentative evidence that EM growth has begun to stabilise. 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian real stabilises following sharp sell-off The good news is that the Brazilian real is no longer in freefall and appears to have stabilised at around 4.0/$ in recent days following verbal intervention by policymakers. We’re still taking a... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Currency falls compound inflation troubles for some EMs While inflation in the EM world is low on average, there are big divergences. In particular, many of the economies already struggling with high inflation are also those that have seen their currencies... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
