Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Oct.) The 2.5% y/y rise in Mexican consumer prices in the first half of this month is unlikely to have much of a bearing on next Wednesday’s MPC meeting, given that it was in line with expectations. However... 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America’s credit bubble deflates Our latest Banking Heat Map shows that credit bubbles across Latin America have started to deflate. So far at least, this does not appear to have triggered widespread problems for the region’s... 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update VW scandal unlikely to dent Mexico’s car industry for long News that Mexico’s flagship Volkswagen (VW) plant has cut weekend shifts, frozen hiring and scaled back production in the wake of the emissions scandal that has engulfed the company has raised... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM growth subdued but stable There has been very little in the latest data to justify fears of a widespread collapse in emerging markets. While economic growth remains subdued, conditions appear to have stabilised in recent... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Oct.) The latest rise in inflation in Brazil, to a 12-year high of 9.8% y/y in the first half of this month, was driven by another increase in regulated fuel prices and was in line with expectations. It is... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil downturn to shift from investment to consumers The primary driver of the slump in Brazil’s economy over the past year has been a collapse in business investment. We expect this to ease towards the end of this year – with consumer spending taking... 19th October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What would a Scioli presidency mean for Argentina? Daniel Scioli, the candidate of Argentina’s left-wing ruling coalition, seems on course to win the presidential election in the first round on 25th October. His plans for the economy have been... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Economic Activity Indicator (Aug.) The 4.5% y/y drop in Brazil’s Economic Activity Indicator in August suggests that the country’s recession probably deepened over Q3 as a whole. The monthly activity data suggest that this... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s tightening cycle to be brief Chile’s decision to raise interest rates last night is likely to be followed by another hike soon, but the bigger picture is that the tightening cycle is likely to be short. Meanwhile, although the... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Latin America Data Response The weakening of Peru’s economy in August is disappointing, but we don’t think this is the start of a sustained downturn and the recovery remains on track. 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports show signs of bottoming out EM exports continued to fall sharply in August, but the early data for September provide some hope that the worst may now be over. The year-on-year pace of contraction in export values is likely to... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Our Capital Flows Tracker shows that over a quarter of a trillion dollars flowed out of EMs in the third quarter. This was largely due to China, although there are signs that the pace of capital... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rising Brazilian soybean production to push prices lower Although the USDA has revised down its forecasts for this year’s US corn, wheat and soybean harvests, we think ample global supplies will push prices down over the remainder of the year. 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Aug.) The modest 1.0% y/y rise in Mexican industrial production masked the more encouraging 3.1% y/y increase in manufacturing output. But the bigger picture is that the sector remains weak. 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Sep.) The further fall in Mexican inflation in September, coming on the back of dovish minutes from last month’s MPC meeting published this week, and a recent appreciation of the peso against the dollar... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Sep.) The fall in Chilean inflation in September, to 4.6% y/y, is an encouraging sign that price pressures resulting from the sharp fall in the peso over the past year are starting to wane. But with... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
