The announcement yesterday that Argentina will seek an IMF deal has brought some relief to the peso, but it’s far from guaranteed that an agreement will be reached. More generally, talk of an IMF deal highlights something that we have been arguing for some time – that the consensus view on Argentina over the past 12-18 months has been far too complacent, given the build-up of economic vulnerabilities. Our forecasts have been at the bottom end of the consensus range, but a recession is now looking likely.
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