Emerging Markets Economics Update What does the fall in oil prices mean for EMs? The $10pb fall in global oil prices over the past couple of weeks will improve the terms of trade for major EM oil importers, such as India, and will help to provide some relief for countries with... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Growth to drop back after second quarter rebound Although the Bank of Canada’s expectations for first-quarter GDP growth were more accurate than our own, we still think the Bank is underestimating the strength of the rebound in growth this quarter... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold has further to rise in 2019 The combination of a scaling back of US interest rate expectations, a struggling S&P 500, and the dollar coming off the boil has lifted the price of gold to a three-month high during the past week... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (May) Despite mortgage interest rates falling to 18-month lows, mortgage applications for home purchase declined steadily over May. Concerns over the health of the economy, and a lack of inventory, is... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s “fiscal shock” set to cause more problems Italy is on another collision course with the EU that looks set to push bond yields up and weigh on economic activity. 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Equities may be the next shoe to drop Just as we had expected, global forces have contributed to 10-year gilt yields falling below 1.00% and the pound weakening to a recent low of close to $1.25. If we are right in thinking that the... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Services PMI (May) May’s IHS Markit/CIPS report on services was thankfully not as bad as the manufacturing and construction surveys released earlier this week. Nonetheless, it seems clear that the economy has lost... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Apr.) & Final PMIs (May) The upward revision to May’s euro-zone PMI leaves it still pointing to GDP growth slowing in Q2. The fall in retail sales in April suggests this is partly due to subdued consumption growth. 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Growth in Saudi Arabia to slip further Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy slowed in the first quarter as a pick-up in the non-oil economy was offset by weakness in the oil sector. We think that the slowdown has further to... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Philippines CPI (May) The unexpected uptick in inflation in May mainly reflected temporary factors and is unlikely to preclude further rate cuts from the central bank. We are sticking with our forecast for two more cuts in... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The policies of the 12 trying to get into Number 10 While the 12 candidates for the leadership of the Conservative party are divided over the best approach to Brexit, they seem reasonably united in calling for looser fiscal policy. That could give the... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Risk aversion looks here to stay After plunging in May, we expect the prices of most energy and industrial commodities to remain subdued in 2019 on the back of slower global growth and a rise in investor risk aversion. Grains may be... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Would Labour’s policy proposals make a difference? Recent housing proposals from Labour, if enacted, could have major consequences for the housing market. On the plus side, abolishing stamp duty could help to unclog housing transactions. But proposals... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Apr.) The weakness of Brazilian industrial production, which expanded by just 0.3% m/m in April, was in part a result of a fall in output in the mining sector, which should unwind in the coming months. Even... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian pound’s rally unlikely to last The Egyptian pound has been the best performing EM currency this year, but we think that it will give up all of its gains over the coming months. We forecast the pound to depreciate by around 7% to 18... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
