Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (May) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI dropped back to 45.4 in May, dampening hopes of a recovery after a weak Q1. The fall in the prices sub-component supports our view that the South African Reserve Bank... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (May) The sharper-than-expected drop in the manufacturing PMI from 53.1 to 49.4 means that the index is now at its lowest level since directly after the referendum in July 2016, and suggests that the sector... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss CPI & Manufacturing PMIs (May) The morning’s release of inflation and PMI data from Switzerland for May showed that price pressures remain almost entirely absent and that the industrial sector remains in the shadow of the euro-zone... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) May’s manufacturing PMI data supports our view that growth in Central Europe will slow over the rest of this year. The recent tightening of financial conditions in Turkey appears to be weighing more... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (May) The weaker-than-expected Turkish inflation figures for May, combined with the recent rally in the lira, means that the MPC will continue to shift away from its hawkish stance at this month’s policy... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (May) The rise in India’s manufacturing PMI reading in May should help to ease some concerns over the state of local manufacturing following the weakness of the GDP data for Q1. Nevertheless, additional... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May) The continued weakness in China’s activity surveys reinforces our view that economic growth is likely to soften this quarter and increases the likelihood of additional policy easing in the coming... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (May) We expect the pace of house price declines to gradually ease this year with house prices reaching a trough by the end of the year. We suspect house prices may start to rise again thereafter, by 3% in... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s investment slump, rate cuts One factor that has been missed amid the growing debate about the weakness of Brazil’s economy is the continued slump in investment and, more worryingly, the fact that there is little prospect for a... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Trade back in the driving seat Trade was the big theme this week once again, with China suggesting it could restrict exports of rare earth elements to the US, as well as a rise in US-Mexico trade tensions. Consequently, the prices... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Tariff threats rock weakening economy The shock news that President Donald Trump will impose tariffs on all imports from Mexico comes amid mounting evidence that the economy has already lost considerable momentum. The May employment... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Second-quarter pick-up in GDP growth won’t last While the Bank of Canada presented a fairly balanced policy statement alongside its decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 1.75% this week, in the speech that followed a day later Senior Deputy... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SA GDP slump & rate cuts, inflation drop vindicates CBK Dovish comments from the South African Reserve Bank this week support our view that an interest rate cut is likely to come as soon as July. Elsewhere, the drop in Kenyan inflation in May backed up the... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Rare earths prices could get a shot in the arm China’s threat to restrict rare earth exports to the US has awoken the prices of rare earth elements (REE) from their slumber. While restrictions on Chinese exports to the US are unlikely to occur... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IPF Consensus Forecasts The downgrade to the IPF Consensus forecast for all-property total returns this year to 1.8% y/y, mainly reflected a weaker outlook for the retail sector. Although our forecasts are similar this year... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
