US Housing Market Update Shutdown will lift delinquencies, but not foreclosures Households struggling to pay their mortgage thanks to the government shutdown will be offered forbearance. That won’t prevent a rise in the mortgage delinquency rate, but with back pay guaranteed it... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Outlook for Spanish office rents still good With only a small downgrade to our outlook for the Spanish economy, office occupier demand looks set to stay healthy. As such, rental growth in Barcelona and Madrid will continue to be amongst the... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Too soon to write off Venezuela The received wisdom in the oil market is that the latest political turmoil in Venezuela is positive for oil prices as it could lead to further disruptions to the country’s oil supply. But a change of... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Dec.) The batch of Russian activity data for December suggests that the economy weakened at the end of last year. Even so, GDP growth over Q4 as a whole was probably a little stronger than it was in Q3... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Parliament grabbing the wheel steers sterling higher While the vote in Parliament next Tuesday might not break the Brexit deadlock, it could give us a better steer on where the UK is headed. After all, MPs will vote on a series of amendments which could... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Turning economic cycle favours bonds over equities We think that the darkening prospects for the global economy favour high-grade bonds over equities this year. Our forecasts are for the Chinese and euro-zone economies to lose more momentum, and for a... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Revisiting EM debt risks The slowdown in the global economy has raised fresh concerns about rising EM debt levels. The risks posed by China’s credit boom are now well known, although mitigated by the nature of the lending... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Regional slowdown worsens, nervous MPCs A raft of weak activity and survey data released this week reinforces our relatively downbeat view on the outlook for growth across Emerging Europe this year. Slowing growth seems to be worrying some... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will rising unemployment resurrect the Phillips Curve? Slower global growth will bring the downward trend in unemployment seen in developed economies in recent years to a halt and actually push unemployment up in some countries including the US. This... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Peace in Mindanao and a less hawkish Fed Peace in the restive southern province of Mindanao, the second biggest island in the Philippines, could lead to big economic gains for the island itself, but is unlikely to have much impact on overall... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya debt increases fragilities, SA inflation supports dovish view Given Kenya’s fragile external position, plans for more foreign currency debt will increase the economy’s vulnerability to external shocks. Policymakers at the Central Bank of Nigeria showed no sign... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK Finance Mortgage Lending (Dec.) Mortgage approvals suffered a second successive monthly decline in December, suggesting that the outlook for lending remains subdued against a backdrop of high house prices and expected rises in... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jan.) January’s further fall in the Ifo Business Climate Index supports other evidence that economic growth in Germany has stalled. 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly IMF too optimistic, Goyal won’t alter the budget The IMF released its latest growth forecasts for India this week and, while we wouldn’t get too hung up on small differences in the numbers, the trajectory of growth that the Fund is forecasting seems... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Middle-income squeeze weighing on consumption On paper, China’s rebalancing is going swimmingly, with the consumption share of GDP growth jumping last year to its highest level in almost two decades. But this is hard to square with broader data... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Jobs and credit growth set to slow further The downturn in the housing market means that the recent stability of the unemployment rate probably won’t last. We expect jobs growth to slow to 1% next year and the unemployment rate to creep up to... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
