Canada Economics Weekly Consensus forecast for GDP growth is too high In our opinion, current consensus forecasts that real GDP growth will better 3% annualised over the first half of this year are too optimistic. Admittedly, the monthly GDP data present a fairly solid... 28th March 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly First-quarter growth flagging We had originally expected first-quarter GDP growth to be pretty strong, possibly even as high as 4% at an annualised pace. The more incoming data we see, however, the more we suspect that growth will... 28th March 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Conditions gradually improving Labour market conditions are still improving and our econometric model, which is based on a range of monthly indicators, points to a 175,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in March. After the rapid... 24th March 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Feb.) The 16.9% m/m decline in new home sales to a record low of only 250,000 annualised in February, from 301,000 the month before, underlines just how bad conditions in the housing market still are. 23rd March 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response New Home Sales (Feb.) The 16.9% m/m decline in new home sales to a record low of only 250,000 annualised in February, from 301,000 the month before, underlines just how bad conditions in the housing market still are. 23rd March 2011 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Labour market slowly recovering The labour market is finally showing signs of improvement, with the unemployment rate falling sharply from 9.8% last November to 8.9% this February. That decline, however, owes more to a large exodus... 22nd March 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Feb.) The 9.6% m/m decline in existing home sales in February illustrates that, even if we allow for the possible impact of unseasonably severe weather last month, the housing market is still clearly years... 21st March 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Underlying inflation will remain muted Although the past run-up in agricultural commodity prices will push food prices and headline CPI inflation somewhat higher later this year, we also predict that measures of underlying CPI inflation... 21st March 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed won't be swayed by higher inflation The statement issued after last week's FOMC meeting made it pretty clear that the Fed wouldn't be rushing to tighten policy in response to the recent surge in commodity prices, at least not while core... 21st March 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Feb.) The modest dip in inflation in February was largely due to some strong base year effects, stemming from the spike in prices during last year's winter Olympic Games. We still expect headline CPI... 18th March 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response CPI, Industrial Prod'n (Feb.) & Philly Fed (Mar.) Higher headline CPI inflation and the strength of the manufacturing recovery are not going to sway the Fed when core inflation remains muted and other sectors of the economy, notably housing, are... 17th March 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response PPI, Housing Starts (Feb.) & Current Account (Q4) The surge in PPI inflation won't sway the Fed. It has already said that it expects the commodity-related upturn will be "transitory". With core PPI inflation still low and the economic recovery... 16th March 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Jan.) January's survey of manufacturers indicates that production continued to recover lost ground early in the New Year. Much of this strength is attributed to the pick-up in auto production. There is no... 16th March 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed likely to complete QE2 as planned Despite the fact that Fed officials now believe the economic recovery is on a "firmer footing" and that surging commodity prices are putting "upward pressure" on headline inflation, it looks like QE2... 15th March 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) Halfway through the Fed's second round of quantitative easing there is still no sign that it is boosting broad money growth. M2 is growing no faster than nominal GDP and our measure of M3, which... 14th March 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Debt limit spat has unleashed QE3 by stealth One of the unintentional side effects of the current impasse in Congress over raising the debt ceiling is that it has led to a significant expansion of the monetary base. Indeed, the drop in the... 14th March 2011 · 1 min read
