US Economics Weekly Could we see a US rate hike this year? The markets will be watching for any signs of a shift in tone in Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's semi-annual testimony to Congress this week. Despite signs that the economic recovery is gathering momentum... 28th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls to rebound as weather effects are reversed After having been depressed by the unseasonably heavy snowfall in January, we anticipate that payroll employment rebounded by about 250,000 in February. The underlying story, though, is one in which... 24th February 2011 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch No interest rate hikes this year It is almost a foregone conclusion that the Bank of Canada will hold its key policy interest rate at 1% next week. More importantly, we think the Bank is unlikely to change its stance on monetary... 24th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jan.) & House Prices (Q4) The outlook for new home sales will remain bleak as long as foreclosed homes can be snapped up at heavily discounted prices. Meanwhile, by excluding many foreclosed sales, the FHFA index may not be... 24th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Jan.) The manufacturing recovery is still picking up momentum. The 2.7% m/m increase in durable goods orders in January is better than it looks when we take into account the big revision to December's... 24th February 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Housing downturn to hit economy hard Because Canada emerged from the global financial crisis largely unaffected, many Canadians now appear to believe that the economy is somehow invincible. This level of hubris is disconcerting when... 23rd February 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Housing downturn to hit economy hard Because Canada emerged from the global financial crisis largely unaffected, many Canadians now appear to believe that the economy is somehow invincible. This level of hubris is disconcerting when... 23rd February 2011 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Improving activity surveys points to strong first half The economic outlook appears to have improved recently, with both the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices improving to multi-year highs in January. We certainly anticipate a strong first... 23rd February 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jan.) The upward trend in existing home sales is set to remain slow and steady rather than speedy and spectacular. 23rd February 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Another year of falling prices House prices will decline by at least 5% this year. The real danger is that a vicious circle of falling prices and rising foreclosures drags prices down even further. 22nd February 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response House Prices (Q4) & Confidence (Feb.) The further fall in the Case-Shiller measure of national house prices at the end of last year took prices to a new cycle low, meaning that a double-dip is now officially underway. Prices are likely to... 22nd February 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly A consumption storm For the first time in a year, real consumption probably declined in January. Last month's unusually heavy snowfalls may be partly to blame. But the bad weather probably only exacerbated the slowing... 21st February 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Jan.) It is just a matter of time before the recent rapid increases in agricultural commodity prices lead to higher consumer price inflation. Even though the headline CPI inflation rate edged down to 2.3%... 18th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Four obstacles to housing finance reform The Obama Administration's recent proposals to wind down the government-owned institutions of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and create a market in which private businesses are the primary source of... 17th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Delinquencies (Q4) Better labour market conditions led to a significant fall in the share of delinquent mortgages at the end of last year. Further falls in the unemployment rate this year are likely to push the... 17th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) Consumer prices increased by 0.4% m/m in January, as the surge in commodity prices continued to feed through. 17th February 2011 · 1 min read
