US Housing Market Data Response House Prices (Feb.) House prices have started to drop at a faster pace and on some indices are now falling at rates not seen since the financial crisis. In contrast to most forecasters, we always thought that prices... 26th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Mar.) We are hopeful that the increase in new home sales in March marks the end of the downward trend that had taken sales to a record low. But with existing homes being sold at much more competitive prices... 25th April 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy vulnerable to a commodities correction Sharply higher commodity prices and a runaway Canadian currency are boosting Canada's terms of trade, a key source of growth in incomes and therefore domestic spending. In some cases, specific... 25th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly US credit status will remain under threat There are some good reasons why S&P's decision to put America's AAA credit rating on negative watch made more of a splash in the media than in the markets. Admittedly, the fiscal position in the US is... 25th April 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) The latest retail sales data add to the evidence that real consumption growth slowed to around 2% annualised in the first quarter, less than half the 5% pace seen in the final three months of last... 21st April 2011 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack How bad was first-quarter GDP growth? The latest consensus forecast still puts first-quarter GDP growth as high as 1.8% annualised, whereas our own calculations suggest it was no higher than 1.0%. (See Chart below.) Furthermore, despite... 20th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Mar.) March's existing home sales data provide more evidence that the economic recovery has bypassed the housing market. What's worse is that these figures may be overestimating the level of sales by up to... 20th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Bernanke steps into brave new world The conclusion of next week's two-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday will mark the start of a brave new world, with Chairman Ben Bernanke scheduled to host the Fed's first post-meeting press conference. We... 20th April 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Mar.) The pass through of higher commodity prices was behind the jump in CPI inflation, to 3.3% in March from 2.2% in February. Considering the temporary nature of these supply shocks, however, we still don... 19th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Mar.) The rebound in housing starts in March does little to hide the fact that homebuilding activity remains close to rock bottom. With both the demand and need for new homes still very low, housing starts... 19th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Hard to argue with negative outlook on US AAA credit rating Given the size of the US Federal deficit, which will be close to 10% of GDP this year, and the daunting medium-term fiscal challenges, it is hard to argue with S&P's decision to put a negative outlook... 18th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Is there light at the end of the tunnel? The combination of favourable valuations and exceptional affordability has made housing look like the bargain of a lifetime. But structural constraints on demand are preventing households from taking... 18th April 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada's economic update overly optimistic The Bank of Canada's April Monetary Policy Report showed that it expects the global economy to grow at a steady pace over the next three years. Closer to home, it assumes growth in the US economy will... 18th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly GDP growth slowed to a crawl in first quarter Every data release last week seemed to necessitate a further downward revision to our first-quarter GDP growth forecast. By the end of the week when the dust had finally settled, that estimate was... 18th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response CPI, Ind. Prod'n (Mar.) & Consumer Conf. (Apr.) The pass through of higher agricultural and commodity prices continued in March, with a 0.8% m/m increase in food prices and a 5.6% m/m increase in gasoline prices leading to a 0.5% m/m increase in... 15th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) March's 0.4% m/m increase in US retail sales provides only half the story as the headline numbers are not adjusted for the rise in prices. The key message is that real spending is hardly rising, if at... 13th April 2011 · 1 min read
