US Economic Outlook Recovery still dependent on policy stimulus The recovery regained momentum over the final few months of last year and, helped by the boost from the latest fiscal stimulus, we expect GDP growth of 3% this year. 16th February 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Monthly Survey of Manufacturing (Dec.) December's survey of manufacturers was a disappointment, to us and almost everyone. Not only was growth in shipments much weaker than most had expected, more importantly declines in new and unfilled... 16th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production & Producer Prices (Jan.) The 0.3% m/m increase in manufacturing output in January is actually quite encouraging, given that the already reported drop in average hours worked by manufacturing employees last month suggests the... 16th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Housing Starts (Jan.) Despite the rebound in January, housing starts remain at an unusually low level. This is unlikely to change when there is little need for new homes or when falling prices and rising costs are denting... 16th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) Despite the acceleration in the growth rate of the narrow M1 monetary aggregate, the growth of the broader M2 aggregate remains muted and our M3 measure is still shrinking. 15th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) & Empire State Index (Feb.) The retail sector started the year on a soft note, suggesting that consumption growth is losing momentum. This is perhaps even more worrying at a time when spending should be receiving a boost from... 15th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Higher mortgage rates doing little to dent affordability The recent rise in mortgage rates to a 10-month high has done little to dent affordability. Even a doubling in rates would leave our long-term measure of affordability below that seen before the... 14th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Unemployment rate lowered by labour force exodus The decline in the unemployment rate doesn't just reflect an improving job market, it is also equally due to a decline in the labour force participation rate. There are roughly one million people who... 14th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Prices still sliding The renewed downward trend in house prices continued towards the end of last year, with prices on the 20-City Case-Shiller index falling for the fifth month in a row in November. (See Chart below.)... 11th February 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Dec.) December's trade data confirm that net exports made a very strong contribution to GDP growth in Q4. We estimate that GDP growth accelerated to 3.5% annualised in the final three months of last year... 11th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Dec.) The prospect of a rebound in imports at the start of this year, most probably linked to the recent strength of consumption, suggests that the external sector is unlikely to provide as large a boost to... 11th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jan.) The rebound in mortgage rates to a 10-month high has driven mortgage applications lower once again. With demand for mortgage borrowing still so weak, it is hard to see housing activity strengthening... 9th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Higher food prices eat into payroll tax cut In light of recent increases in oil and agricultural commodity prices, we now expect CPI inflation to peak at 2.5% this summer, up from our previous forecast of 2.0%. But this is unlikely to sway the... 7th February 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jan.) Solid increases in employment over the last three months are consistent with the pick-up in economic growth in Q4. However, the unfavourable split between part-time and full-time workers added in... 4th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) The severe winter weather that occurred during the sample week appears to explain most of the weakness in January's non-farm payrolls, which increased by only 36,000, compared with a 121,000 gain the... 4th February 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Focus House prices likely to fall for several years We doubt that the economic recovery is on the secure footing required for it to maintain its recent pace. We expect GDP growth of just 1.5% in both 2011 and 2012. But at least the UK has turned a... 3rd February 2011 · 1 min read
