Canada Economics Weekly Oil price rally more important than slump in lumber The dramatic fall in lumber prices over the past month has captured a lot of attention, but it is the more gradual rally in oil prices that is likely to have the greatest bearing on the economic... 25th June 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed officials split; Biden backs infrastructure deal Fed Chair Jerome Powell stuck to the script in his congressional appearance earlier this week, arguing it was “very, very, unlikely” that the US would experience a return to the high inflation of the... 25th June 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Price and wage expectations continue to rise The latest CFIB Business Barometer shows that, as the re-opening process got underway, firms’ selling price expectations surged in June. Firms now expect to raise their prices by an average of 4.7%... 25th June 2021 · 9 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Shortages keep speed limit on payrolls We estimate that non-farm payrolls increased by about 500,000 again in June, as labour supply shortages continue to roil the market. 24th June 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (May) The 2.3% m/m rise in durable goods orders last month was driven by another big increase in commercial aircraft orders reflecting the recovery in air travel, with underlying orders weaker than expected... 24th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks declined again last week. However, with both implied demand for most products and refinery activity close to pre-pandemic levels, we think the pace of draws will stabilise. 23rd June 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Timberrrrrrrr... Although we remain optimistic about the near-term demand outlook, we think that the price of US lumber will fall further in the coming months as domestic supply continues to revive. 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Offices set for a prolonged performance divide The pandemic has heightened occupiers’ focus on the quality and green credentials of the space they occupy. This trend is set to impact on demand, with modern, well-configured buildings with green... 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (May) While new home sales declined in May, data for homes that are yet to start construction were stronger, as elevated construction costs caused homebuilders to delay projects. But with falling lumber... 23rd June 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Valuations still reasonable despite house price boom The housing market hit a milestone in April, with real house prices rising above the previous peak recorded during the boom of the mid-2000s. But that doesn’t mean valuations are at dangerous levels... 22nd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We think that returns from US corporate bonds will underwhelm US corporate credit spreads have reached post-Global-Financial-Crisis (GFC) lows in recent weeks. So, despite our forecast for a healthy US economy, we expect US corporate bonds to outperform... 22nd June 2021 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (May) Record low inventory is weighing on housing market activity, with existing home sales falling to an 11-month low in May. And with booming house prices and rising mortgage rates set to stretch... 22nd June 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Major Office Markets Outlook (Q2 2021) The start to the year has been in line with our expectations, meaning that falls in absorption and rents have generally accelerated in the six major metros. Owing to their relatively low rents and... 18th June 2021 · 15 mins read
Capital Daily We expect further US dollar appreciation We think that the surge in the US dollar which has followed Wednesday’s FOMC meeting is a sign of things to come. 18th June 2021 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (May.) Commercial real estate debt held by banks grew again in May. But while we expect growth to accelerate as the year progresses and confidence returns, investor caution toward the office and retail... 11th June 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Substantial upgrades to industrial and apartments this year The economic recovery continues in earnest, but this is raising questions about quite how transitory the current high rates of inflation are. We think that core inflation will stay elevated, which... 10th June 2021 · 24 mins read
