US Commercial Property Outlook Structural changes will keep office and retail in the doldrums While the news of vaccines provides a fillip to our economic outlook, it does not have a major bearing on our occupier market forecasts. After all, we expect that structural change, rather than... 11th December 2020 · 23 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Revising the peak-to-trough price fall to just 5% Our upcoming Outlook will detail major upgrades to our capital value expectations. Rather than a total fall of around 10% at the all-property level, we now expect the cumulative decline to be just 5%. 3rd December 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Vaccine will not provide a quick fix for real estate News about a vaccine has boosted financial markets and we have revised up our global economic expectations for the next two years or so. But while we think that this bodes well for the medium term... 2nd December 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Apartments, retail and the terrible Ts: Tech & Tourism Cities with a large tourism sector, such as Las Vegas and Orlando, still employ 10% fewer people than they did in February, which will hurt retail spending and apartment demand. And, while office... 10th November 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Swathes of sublease space will soon hit office rents The volume of available sublease space already exceeds that seen in the last two downturns. And an average discount of 20% to landlord asking rents, rising to 30%-plus in some cities, will reduce the... 4th November 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q3 2020) All-property total returns moved positive again this quarter, as valuation downgrades reduced markedly. A lack of forced sellers has limited transaction activity and reduced observable evidence, which... 27th October 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update ULI Consensus Forecast (Fall 2020) Consensus forecasts for this year have been revised upwards, although the outlook for total returns remains negative. At the same time, the prospects for 2021-22 have been downgraded, but only... 14th October 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Focus Is COVID-19 the death-knell for physical retail? Retail has been hit hard by the COVID-19 crisis and lasting changes to online spending will bring further pain. While our estimates suggest that the impact is likely to be less severe than structural... 8th October 2020 · 27 mins read
Commodities Update Rally in soybean prices may be overdone Strong demand from China will put a floor under corn and soybean consumption in 2020/21. But with record expected yields in the US, we expect corn and soybean prices to come off the boil. 18th September 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Scenarios for the effect of remote working on US offices Given uncertainty around the level of adoption of remote-working, change in space allocated per worker and how large any reduction in supply might be, we provide a set of potential scenarios for the... 24th August 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Valuations need to improve further to entice investors Property valuations improved substantially in Q2, on the back of a huge 120 bps drop in equities earnings yields. However, while the office, retail and apartment sectors look undervalued on our... 20th August 2020 · 7 mins read
US Commercial Property Focus Remote working to hit office income by 20-25% 6th August 2020 · 25 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada too downbeat on growth and inflation We think the Bank of Canada’s GDP forecasts are too weak given it assumes there will not be a second wave of the virus. Even if there is one, the Bank is likely underestimating the potential for... 29th July 2020 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q2 2020) As expected, all-property total returns turned negative in Q2, led lower by sharp markdowns in the retail and hotel sectors. And, while rental values and capital values fell in all sectors last... 27th July 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Short, sharp, downturn will prevent major LTV breaches Debt covenants generally look less stretched in this downturn than during the GFC. And, although interest cover ratios are relatively low in some REIT sub-sectors, the short, sharp, fall in capital... 16th July 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update CMBS bondholders face mounting risks CMBS delinquencies have risen sharply in recent months, yet we aren’t expecting a repeat of the real estate debt meltdown witnessed in the GFC. However, non-performing loan rates are especially high... 8th July 2020 · 3 mins read
