US Economics ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul.) The further small decline in the ISM manufacturing index in July probably has more to do with the continued drag from supply constraints than waning demand. The details did at least suggest that... 2nd August 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Bank will take comfort in latest inflation data Although inflation remained above the Bank of Canada’s 1% to 3% target range in June, the details of the release seem to support the Bank’s view that the high rate of inflation is due to transitory... 30th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (May) The monthly data suggest that GDP expanded by 2.5% annualised in the second quarter, despite the lockdowns in April and May, and the likely 0.7% m/m gain in June will provide a strong hand-over to the... 30th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Re-opening should more than offset wildfire disruption The wildfires in British Columbia appear to have been more disruptive than we first thought, but GDP should still rise this month thanks to the easing of the coronavirus restrictions. The volume of... 29th July 2021 · 9 mins read
US Economics Payroll growth to remain elevated With labour supply continuing to lag the recovery in demand, we estimate that growth in non-farm payrolls slowed to 650,000 in July. 29th July 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q2) Improvements in occupier demand boosted market sentiment in Q2. With over half of surveyors perceiving the property cycle to be in an upturn, prospects for H2 performance look solid. But while we... 29th July 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics GDP (Q2) The relatively disappointing 6.5% annualised gain in second-quarter GDP, which was well below the consensus at 8.5%, included unexpected declines in government spending and residential investment, and... 29th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks resumed their downward trend last week. With domestic output still well below pre-virus levels and product demand likely to rise, we think crude stocks will fall further... 28th July 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Jun.) Employment growth accelerated in June, helping office-based employment return to pre-pandemic levels in almost a third of metros. But the 3m/3m growth rate in total employment was highest in the... 28th July 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Conditions tighten in homeowner and rental markets The second quarter Housing Vacancies and Homeownership survey showed market conditions tightening in both the homeowner and rental markets, with vacancy rates at 56-year and 37-year lows respectively... 28th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We doubt global saving will stop US yields from rising In the early 2000s, a ‘glut’ of global saving may have helped restrain rises in long-term US bond yields, even as investors began to discount tighter monetary policy. We don’t think that similar... 28th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Consumer Prices (Jun.) Consumer prices increased only marginally in June but, as firms’ selling price expectations are currently very elevated, we continue to expect inflation to rebound back toward 4% soon. 28th July 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q2 2021) All-property total returns strengthened again in Q2, reflecting improvement in all sectors. Industrial returns set a new quarterly record for the sector, while office and retail returns were again... 27th July 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (May) House prices showed no signs of slowing in May, with annual growth setting new records on both the Case-Shiller and FHFA measures. But with housing demand falling back since the start of the year, and... 27th July 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Durable Goods (Jun.) The June durable goods data were a little weaker than we had expected, but the further rise in underlying orders suggests that business equipment investment growth is slowing only gradually. 27th July 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Will the pandemic boost productivity growth? Productivity growth surged during the pandemic last year, but that was principally due to the disproportionate job losses in low-productivity sectors like leisure & hospitality, which raised the... 27th July 2021 · 19 mins read
