Global Markets Focus Victory for the Democrats could hold back US equities The odds that Joe Biden wins this year’s US presidential election, and that the Democrats also win full control of Congress, have risen recently. While we expect US equities to fare reasonably well... 22nd June 2020 · 16 mins read
US Commercial Property Update ULI Consensus Forecast (Spring 2020) Forecasts for all indicators in 2020 have shown a marked deterioration since the interim year-end 2019 forecast published in January. While the consensus sector ranking is in line with our March... 21st May 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q1) Data for the first quarter show that all-property total returns saw their weakest quarterly performance since the tail-end of the GFC. Given that occupier market conditions have since deteriorated and... 28th April 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Paycheck protection program will reduce scarring The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) of forgivable small business loans has come too late to prevent the huge initial wave of layoffs, but will be more useful in helping less directly affected firms... 14th April 2020 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Focus Forecasting US Commercial Property This Focus is a reference guide for clients of our new US Commercial Property service. It outlines the key pillars of our forecasting approach, updating previous methodological work from our... 17th March 2020 · 20 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update What does COVID-19 mean for commercial real estate? The recent market meltdown reflects concerns about the economic impact of the COVID-19 virus. This will inevitably hit commercial property, but in our view, the downside is likely to be relatively... 6th March 2020 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Economy to take a hit despite Fed’s intervention The Fed’s emergency rate cut this week made it clear that officials are taking the economic risks posed by the coronavirus outbreak seriously. But with the number of new cases rising sharply, we don’t... 6th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Labour Force Survey (Feb.) & International Trade (Jan.) The 30,000 rise in employment in February is encouraging, but the real test will come in the next few months as the effects of the coronavirus outbreak are felt. Despite the strong labour market, the... 6th March 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Feb.) The 273,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in February confirms that the US economy was in very good shape before the coronavirus hit. Nevertheless, with the 10-year Treasury yield slumping to a new record... 6th March 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Feb.) Concerns over the coronavirus have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to record lows, which helped push mortgage rates to a seven-year low last week. That gave a substantial boost to refinancing... 4th March 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Biden the front runner again Joe Biden’s comeback to win most of the Super Tuesday states means he is now the front-runner for the Democratic nomination, and his campaign could gather further momentum in the coming days if Mike... 4th March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fed to follow up emergency cut with more action In a dramatic turnaround from last week, when even the most dovish of Fed officials didn’t appear to support any additional policy loosening, the Fed announced an emergency inter-meeting 50bp rate cut... 3rd March 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb.) The modest fall in the ISM manufacturing index to 50.1 in February, from 50.9, leaves the index still above the levels seen over the second half of last year. Nevertheless, the survey clearly doesn’t... 2nd March 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Grim week raises pressure on the Fed The threat of a coronavirus outbreak in the US is a significant downside risk to the economic outlook. The Fed can do nothing to halt the spread of the virus, but a further tightening of financial... 28th February 2020 · 8 mins read
Dovish policy statement coming The potential for the coronavirus to develop into a pandemic is clearly the biggest risk to our view that the Bank of Canada will keep policy on hold this year. We expect the Bank to remain on the... 26th February 2020 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jan.) Warm weather and a healthy inventory helped new homes make a strong start to the year. A drop in home purchase mortgage applications during February means some of that surge will be reversed over the... 26th February 2020 · 2 mins read
