US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) The 225,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in January suggests that employment benefitted from the unseasonably mild weather (it was the fifth warmest January on record), with the construction sector... 7th February 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Commercial property to outperform bonds and equities Over the next two years we expect US property to produce total returns of over 7.5% p.a. This would be stronger than any of the last three years and, more importantly, would be a better outturn than... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jan.) A rush to safe-haven assets helped drive the 30-year mortgage rate to a three-year low by the end of January. That triggered a surge in mortgage applications for refinance, and a decent rise in home... 5th February 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Encouraging rise in vacant homes being repaired A rise in the number of vacant homes being repaired is an indication that some owners of empty properties are planning to put them up for sale. That may provide some relief to a tight housing market... 4th February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update All-property total returns set to improve in 2020 Having softened in each of the last four years, we expect US commercial property total returns to strengthen again in 2020, reaching close to 7%. Those returns will reflect a roughly 3% uplift in... 3rd February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Stretched valuations to keep lid on house price growth While not at dangerous levels, the house price-to-earnings ratio does suggest home valuations are stretched. With mortgage interest rates unlikely to fall much further, and limited prospect for a... 31st January 2020 · 3 mins read
Coronavirus unlikely to tip the scales for a rate cut After the SARS outbreak, the Bank of Canada shifted from raising to cutting rates in just three months. Other factors were also at play, however, and the Wuhan virus is less likely to tip the scales... 29th January 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Nov.) Low mortgage interest rates and tight supply helped annual house price growth on the Case-Shiller measure increase for the second month in a row in November. But stretched valuations, and tightening... 28th January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Focus Six key calls for US commercial property We are launching our new subscription service on US commercial real estate by outlining six key calls that we believe will shape the sector’s story in the coming years. The macroeconomic environment... 28th January 2020 · 18 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Dec.) New home sales ended 2019 on a weak note, declining in each of the final three months of the year. But a high traffic of prospective buyers in January points to a swift recovery in sales the early... 27th January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response FHFA House Prices / Existing Home Sales (Nov./Dec.) The inventory of existing homes dropped to another record low in December, which means the solid rise in sales seen over the month is unlikely to be the start of an upward trend. Even with market... 22nd January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Key calls for 2020 A lack of homes for sale means forecasters agree that existing home sales will just tread water over 2020. But we are more optimistic than others on the outlook for new home sales and single-family... 21st January 2020 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack Economic growth to accelerate in 2020 The Fed’s interest rate cuts, a truce in the trade war, and a more positive global backdrop have all set the stage for an acceleration in economic growth this year. We calculate that GDP growth was a... 21st January 2020 · 9 mins read
Temporary nature of slowdown to keep Bank on hold Next week the Bank of Canada is likely to once again trim its forecast for GDP growth. But as temporary factors are partly to blame and there have been several positive external developments in recent... 15th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Business Outlook Survey (Q4) The sharp rise in the Future Sales Indicator of the Business Outlook Survey (BOS) is surely the final nail in the coffin for the idea that the Bank of Canada might soon cut interest rates. The survey... 13th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Bank to keep policy unchanged in 2020 The Bank of Canada’s decision to keep policy unchanged was little surprise and, with house price inflation accelerating, it is unlikely the Bank will follow through on its previous hint of an... 4th December 2019 · 3 mins read
