FX Markets Update Negative dollar-oil correlation likely to persist in the short run The negative correlation between the US dollar and the price of oil has reasserted itself in recent months, and we think it will persist as the looming global recession pushes the dollar higher and... 16th November 2022 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Update Rental market conditions begin to ease The small increase in vacancy in Q3 supports our view that the rental market is turning a corner and makes us increasingly confident in our call that rents will fall next year. Conditions remain... 16th November 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Oct.) The strength of underlying retail sales despite higher borrowing costs is encouraging, but manufacturing is slowly succumbing to the global malaise. 16th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Sep.) Manufacturing sales volumes edged down in September and, with the business surveys continuing to weaken and inventory levels now looking unusually high, they are likely to fall further. We expect... 15th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of US equity underperformance and a weaker dollar Although we still don’t think the US dollar has peaked, we suspect the underperformance of US equities that accompanied the greenback’s slump last week will be a regular feature when the currency does... 14th November 2022 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Oct.) CRE lending saw a surprise uptick in growth in October following a rebound in the multifamily sector, although net lending remains below the average for this year. Despite the bounce-back this month... 14th November 2022 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update We still don’t think the dollar has peaked Despite the recent sharp drop in the greenback, we doubt this is the end of the dollar bull market. 11th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank wants to see rise in unemployment Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said this week that the unemployment rate will need to rise to help restore price stability, but he also played down the significance of the strong gains in... 11th November 2022 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Midterms a mixed bag; disinflation begins in earnest While the outcome of the midterms remains unclear, far more important for the economy was October’s softer-than-expected core CPI data, which support our view that the Fed won’t need to raise interest... 11th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the dual rally in Treasuries and equities will last US Treasuries and equities rallied sharply after US CPI came in softer than expected, but we doubt this dual rally will persist. While we think Treasury yields will fall back further as the Fed... 10th November 2022 · 6 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The better than expected 0.3% m/m increase in core consumer prices in October won’t on its own persuade the Fed to drop its hawkish stance. But we expect this to mark the start of a much longer... 10th November 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update ULI Consensus Forecast (Fall 2022) Consensus forecasts for 2023 have been downgraded pretty sharply since the Spring, but we don’t think they have gone far enough. While the consensus is predicting total returns of nearly 4% next year... 10th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the mid-terms and the lack of market reaction The inconclusive result from yesterday's US mid-term election has made limited impact on financial markets and, unlike in 2020, we doubt that would change even in the seemingly improbable event that... 9th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude stocks rose this week even though more crude was used by refiners. And despite the increase in refining output, gasoline and distillate stocks fell on strong demand. We think demand... 9th November 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Sales to slump and prices to fall We expect mortgage rates will hold close to 7% over the remainder of the year, leaving affordability at its worst since 1985. That will lead to another sharp fall in activity. As the economy dips into... 8th November 2022 · 18 mins read
