US Economics Focus Broad-based decline in core inflation coming soon Despite the unanticipated strength in recent months, there are still good reasons to expect core inflation to fall markedly next year. That moderation will not require a deep recession and/or... 2nd November 2022 · 18 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Oct.) On the back of a rise in mortgage rates to above 7%, home purchase applications took another step down in October. That points to further declines in home sales in the coming months. With mortgage... 2nd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily A weak economy may matter most for sector performance The turnaround in the US stock market since 14th October has coincided with a retreat in Treasury yields. Nonetheless, two of its three “long-duration” sectors have lagged amid disappointing news on... 1st November 2022 · 7 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) The further fall in the ISM manufacturing index to 50.2 in October, from 50.9, illustrates that global economic weakness and the earlier surge in the dollar are catching up with the factory sector... 1st November 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Small fall in apartment rents as recession bites We expect a small fall in apartment rents next year, as stretched affordability and stagnant employment hit demand while completions surge. But as job growth recovers and the vacancy rate drops back... 31st October 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Further pain may be in store for growth stocks, and the S&P 500 We don’t think growth stocks’ relative struggles are over, nor do we expect a further rebound in the broader stock market yet. 28th October 2022 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Recession a line in the sand for the Bank The Bank of Canada now judges that there is a 50/50 chance of GDP growth turning negative, which caused it to slow the pace of its tightening to a 50 bp hike this week and to hint that it will drop to... 28th October 2022 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Faltering economy will contribute to Fed pivot The 2.6% annualised rise in third quarter GDP was a lot worse than it looked, with growth in underlying demand grinding to a near-halt. At the same time, there are mounting signs that economic... 28th October 2022 · 9 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Aug.) GDP performed better than expected last quarter but, with the business surveys weakening significantly, growth is likely to slow to a crawl this quarter and we expect a mild recession in 2023. 28th October 2022 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Income & Spending (Sep.), Employment Cost Index (Q3) 28th October 2022 · 2 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Payroll gains take another step down We are pencilling in a further step down in non-farm payroll growth to 225,000 in October and we expect that payrolls will be falling outright by early 2023. 27th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q3) & Durable Goods (Sep.) The 2.6% annualised rebound in third-quarter GDP looks impressive, but it was entirely due to a 2.8%-point boost from net external trade. Final sales to private domestic purchasers, a better measure... 27th October 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q3) The RICS Q3 survey indicated confidence has continued to fall from last quarter, as occupier sentiment turned negative for the first time in 2022. With a US recession looking likely early next year... 27th October 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Sep.) The 10.9% m/m fall in new home sales in September partly reversed last month’s surprise jump. But they are still out of lockstep with both buyer traffic and mortgage applications. Those indicators... 26th October 2022 · 2 mins read
