Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Further rate cuts in the pipeline We expect the Riksbank and the Norges Bank to leave interest rates on hold at their policy meetings this week. Elsewhere, we think that the Central Bank of Iceland will cut rates at its next meeting... 22nd October 2019 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack NOK to fall further before reversing course next year While the Swiss and Swedish economies appear to have contracted in Q3, mainland GDP growth in Norway is chugging along nicely. And even though activity is set to slow in 2020, Norway will remain a... 17th October 2019 · 10 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Easing cycles have further to run In keeping with our bearish view on the euro-zone, our forecasts for GDP growth in Switzerland and the Nordic economies over the coming years are generally well below consensus. Switzerland is most... 16th October 2019 · 21 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Euro-zone close to recession Economic growth has slowed to a crawl and is likely to remain anaemic until well into next year, even in the absence of a fresh external shock. Germany is probably in a recession already and we think... 15th October 2019 · 30 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Slowing to a crawl There have been one or two positive signs in the past week or so, such as the increase in German industrial production in August. But the overall picture remains gloomy. Indeed, at face value the... 8th October 2019 · 11 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Aug.) & Final PMIs (Sep.) The downward revision to September’s euro-zone PMI leaves it consistent with zero growth at the end of Q3, as the contraction in Germany’s economy appears to have accelerated and spread to the... 3rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Sept.) The further decline in Swiss inflation, to just 0.1% in September, will stoke deflationary fears at the SNB and will only strengthen its resolve to resist upward pressure on the franc. 2nd October 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Vehicles still driving the downturn in Germany We estimate that the direct and indirect effects of the slump in vehicle production account for around half of the downturn in German industrial production since the beginning of last year. A... 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swiss manufacturing “strength” masks ailing sectors Most of the recent outperformance of Switzerland’s manufacturing sector relative to Germany’s reflects strong growth in pharmaceuticals. But this has masked struggles in more Germany-facing sectors. 26th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Ups and downs in Swiss bonds echo Bitcoin frenzy The ebbs and flows in investor risk appetite in recent months have resulted in a rollercoaster ride for the Swiss government bond market. The run-up in the price of Swiss 50-year government bonds... 13th September 2019 · 10 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Services sector holding up well for now In the face of the downturn in manufacturing, the services sector is still holding up well. Indeed, the business activity index of the services PMI survey suggests that output in the sector is growing... 5th September 2019 · 11 mins read
Europe Economics Update Greek debt sustainable but will remain “junk” Under any plausible growth scenario Greece’s credit rating is likely to remain well below investment grade over the coming years. Among other things, this means that Greek bonds will not be included... 4th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jul.) & Final PMIs (Aug.) The small upward revision to August’s euro-zone PMI leaves it still pointing to slow GDP growth at the start of H2. And the fall in retail sales in July suggests that consumption started Q3 on weak... 4th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Finland & Denmark GDP (Q2), Swiss KOF (Aug.) Although today’s release of GDP data for Finland and Denmark shows that both economies grew solidly in Q2, we suspect that quarterly growth will slow in both in the coming quarters. Meanwhile, the... 30th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (Aug.) August’s small increase in the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) doesn’t change the big picture of a bleak outlook for the euro-zone economy, and nor does it alter our view that the ECB... 29th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly NOK to reach record low; DKK “trumps” central target After recently changing our Norges Bank forecast, we now expect the NOK/EUR to fall to a record-low of 10.50 by end-2019. Meanwhile, next week we expect a raft of Q2 GDP data to show that while growth... 23rd August 2019 · 6 mins read
