Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Aug.) The trivial increase in the euro-zone Composite PMI in August still leaves it consistent with feeble GDP growth this quarter and won’t put the ECB off easing policy next month. 22nd August 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s latest political drama no game-changer Hopes that Italy’s political crisis will pave the way for a more market-friendly government are likely to be disappointed. The most plausible outcome is a new general election, either later this year... 20th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack SNB to shift through the gears The pick-up in FX interventions by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in recent weeks is likely to be the first step towards a rate cut. But predicting when the interventions will be dialled down and the... 15th August 2019 · 10 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Economic weakness to continue to weigh on equities The recent sell-off in global equity markets has hit the euro-zone harder than the US, but we doubt that this will continue. Equities in Germany have performed particularly poorly, which is... 7th August 2019 · 11 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (July) The sharp fall in Norway’s manufacturing PMI in July adds to signs that the economy is losing momentum and lends support to our view that the Norges Bank will hike rates by less than investors expect... 1st August 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (July) & France GDP (Q2) July’s decline in the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) is consistent with our view that, after probably slowing to 0.2% q/q in Q2, GDP growth in the currency union will remain subdued over... 30th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Policymakers to push the boundaries of policy easing We think that a combination of policy loosening by major central banks, an increase in investor risk aversion, and mounting trade tensions will lead to bond yields in Switzerland and the Nordics... 17th July 2019 · 22 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB to try QE again Economic growth is likely to remain anaemic this year and to slow further in 2020 even if downside risks, such as a US auto tariff or no-deal Brexit, do not materialise. The downturn in the German... 16th July 2019 · 34 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Switzerland calls the EC’s bluff Given the parallels with Brexit, the recent escalation in the spat between the EU and Switzerland has filled many column inches over the past month. (To re-cap, after the Swiss government refused to... 12th July 2019 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Update New Democracy, same old problems New Democracy’s clear victory in Greece’s parliamentary elections yesterday will be welcomed by investors. But it will not be a game changer for the economy, not least because the government will... 8th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Draghi to fire the starting gun, Lagarde to run the race The latest economic data, together with the nomination of Christine Lagarde for ECB president, make us more confident in our view that the ECB will cut interest rates and re-launch QE before the year... 4th July 2019 · 11 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss Consumer Prices (Jun.) Swiss inflation held steady at a very low rate in June and we expect it to fall to zero during the second half of the year on the back of the stronger franc. With deflationary fears set to come back... 4th July 2019 · 2 mins read
