Global Economics Chart Pack Divergence among advanced economies in Q1 Both the hard data and more timely surveys imply that the major advanced economies have had a mixed start to the year. The US has fared particularly well, thanks to easing pandemic-related... 11th March 2021 · 15 mins read
Global Economics Update The global economic implications of chip shortages The global semiconductor shortage appears to be largely the result of a strong revival in demand for goods including consumer electronics rather than pandemic-related supply disruptions. It should... 9th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Shipping strains to ease as goods demand moderates While the latest signs are that capacity constraints in global shipping are continuing to bite, we expect these to subside over the course of the year. Indeed, as vaccine rollouts allow economies to... 26th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Mixed picture for pay pressures in major economies With vaccines improving the economic outlook and labour market data surprising to the upside, we have revised down our unemployment forecasts for almost all major economies. But wider measures of... 23rd February 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Early signs of a difficult start to 2021 Global growth slowed throughout the fourth quarter and most economies entered the new year on a weak footing. We have limited hard data for 2021 so far, but timely surveys and our high-frequency... 10th February 2021 · 15 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch Taper talk a prelude to bigger policy debate Talk of tapering in recent weeks has been premature and we suspect that most major central banks will keep up asset purchases at their current pace for the rest of the year. Assuming that tapering... 4th February 2021 · 15 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs provide first sign that external demand is faltering The global manufacturing PMI survey for January suggests that the industrial recovery lost a bit of steam at the start of the year. It also provided some evidence that, in addition to lengthening... 1st February 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update What to expect from elections in 2021 In this Update, we take stock of the key elections that are scheduled around the world in the coming year and discuss the implications for economic policy. While elections in advanced economies are... 1st February 2021 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update Earned incomes to make up for tapering state support We expect household incomes to rise in most countries this year as easing restrictions allow people to get back to work. The outlook for incomes is brightest in North America, particularly given the... 28th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: US outperformance a sign of things to come The flash PMIs for January suggest that the US economy shrugged off containment measures at the start of 2021, but that restrictions did indeed weigh on activity elsewhere in DMs. The surveys also... 22nd January 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Energy price inflation to drive up headline rates Advanced economy headline inflation rates are set to jump by an average of nearly 2%-pts in the coming months as energy inflation picks up and, in some cases, the effects of last year’s temporary cuts... 15th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Vaccines won’t prevent a weak start to the year While the economic fallout will not be as severe as it was with the first lockdowns, the surge in virus cases will weigh on activity in Q1. Vaccine rollouts should provide a boost to the global... 12th January 2021 · 14 mins read
Global Economics Focus The unusual resilience of trade and what lies in store The relative resilience of real global merchandise trade during the pandemic has reflected several factors, most importantly robust goods spending in advanced economies. Merchandise trade flows are... 23rd December 2020 · 18 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Central banks to look through higher inflation Energy price base effects will drive up inflation in the first half of 2021, but central banks will look through this. Indeed, in most cases, inflation should be around or below target over the second... 17th December 2020 · 15 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Divergences by economy and by sector, for now Recent data confirm that global economic activity has continued to recover from the height of coronavirus restrictions in Q2. But while activity in China is now above its pre-virus level, there is... 10th December 2020 · 14 mins read
Global Economics Update Taking stock of job retention schemes Recent extensions to job retention schemes and hopes of a vaccine appear to have improved the outlook for labour markets. But there is still a risk that governments scale back support too quickly and... 16th November 2020 · 4 mins read
