Global Economics Update Disparities emerge between industrial recoveries While the global manufacturing PMI rose again in July, it masked a divergence in the strength of recoveries among major economies. With growing concerns in recent weeks over a resurgence in the virus... 3rd August 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Auto sector rebound set to decelerate While the auto sector was hit particularly hard by the virus lockdowns, sales and production now seem to be recovering. In the near term, this bodes well for economies which rely heavily on vehicle... 3rd August 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Global trade continues to contract Data from the CPB Netherlands Bureau showed a further fall in world trade in May. Admittedly, the decline in trade so far this year has been smaller than the collapse in GDP might have led us to fear... 24th July 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Rebound in retail sales vulnerable to rise in virus cases There has been an encouraging rebound in retail sales across advanced economies as lockdowns have eased, driven by a pick-up in sales of discretionary items such as clothing and furniture and a shift... 16th July 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Initial rebound at risk from renewed outbreaks Hard data for May generally revealed sharp improvements in activity, particularly retail spending, albeit not to pre-virus levels. This led us to revise our forecasts for several economies including... 9th July 2020 · 15 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch Lending facilities offering vital support This month has seen a further shift among the world’s major central banks from essential liquidity provision to recovery support, with a focus on uptake of the various lending programmes. The results... 2nd July 2020 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update Industry rebound partial but rapid With lockdowns continuing to ease across the globe, it was of little surprise that the manufacturing PMIs rose in June. While the PMIs are still considerably below their pre-crisis levels, they have... 1st July 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Sharpest monthly contraction in world trade on record April’s world trade data confirmed that coronavirus restrictions have taken a very heavy toll on trade flows. But the damage has been slightly less severe than we had feared and more timely data from... 25th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Fragile demand to keep underlying inflation subdued Over the next few months, inflation will be dominated by oil price effects as the previous slump unwinds and headline rates rise from their current lows. Some components of core inflation, such as... 25th June 2020 · 14 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Steep contraction in Q2, but signs of revival from May Available data suggest that world GDP will fall by around 8% q/q in Q2. While China has seen some recovery, GDP in southern Europe probably fell by as much as 25% on the quarter and India appears to... 15th June 2020 · 14 mins read
Global Economics Update Euro-zone incomes will be hit harder than US On the face of it, the surge in unemployment in the US implies that households are being hit harder by the crisis than those in Europe. But much of this reflects differences in the way that furloughed... 3rd June 2020 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to slow industrial recovery May’s PMIs offer evidence that the global industrial sector is now on the slow road to recovery. But with demand extremely weak, activity is still far below normal levels and price pressures have... 1st June 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Trade volumes down for third month and worse is to come Given that the lockdowns were implemented in most countries in March, the 1.4% m/m contraction in world trade volumes seems fairly muted. However, the global number was flattered by a sharp rebound in... 27th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Past the worst, but gradual recovery only May’s Flash PMIs revealed a partial rebound, suggesting that the global economy is past the nadir. But, the recovery in advanced economies appeared slower than that in China, and the services sector... 21st May 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Past the worst, but recovery to be uneven After falling by around 6% q/q in Q1, world GDP looks set for an equally sharp slump in the second quarter. As major advanced economies are following Asia’s lead in easing containment measures, global... 19th May 2020 · 15 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch Taking stock of central bank lending facilities Traditionally, when central banks respond to economic downturns, slashing policy interest rates makes for the headline act. This time, with rates already near zero at the onset of the crisis, rate... 7th May 2020 · 19 mins read
