Global Economics Chart Pack Worse to come in Q4 despite vaccine hopes Hard GDP data have confirmed that most economies saw sharp rebounds in activity in Q3 after the lockdowns of Q2. But monthly data suggest that the pace of improvement slowed during the quarter and the... 11th November 2020 · 14 mins read
Global Trade Monitor World trade boosted by strong recovery in retail sales The further rise in world trade volumes in August was unsurprising given that there has been a strong recovery the demand for imported goods. Given the experience so far, we would expect world trade... 26th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Rebound in DM retail sales less positive than it seems On the face of it, the rebound in retail sales in advanced economies suggests that the consumer sector is leading a V-shaped economic recovery. But other types of spending, including on consumer... 16th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Second waves weighing on consumer recovery While retail sales have rebounded rapidly and are now above pre-virus levels in most major DMs, overall consumer spending has failed to reach the levels seen at the end of last year. That is largely... 12th October 2020 · 14 mins read
Global Economics Update Lessons from the Q2 GDP Output Breakdown The output breakdown of Q2 GDP showed that virus containment measures hit the hospitality, recreation, and transport sectors hardest, while financial services were relatively unaffected. The more... 2nd October 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs suggest industrial recovery slowed by end of Q3 Today’s batch of manufacturing PMIs suggest that production continued to rebound in September, albeit at a slower pace than earlier in the quarter. The big picture, though, is that the state of the... 1st October 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Trade Monitor World trade has clawed back ~75% of lost ground At its trough, in May, world trade fell 17% below its December 2019 level. Data released today show that, by July, world trade had made up two thirds of the lost ground, standing at 6.6% below its... 25th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to weakening DM recoveries September’s weak batch of flash PMIs suggest that the rebound in activity in DMs seen over the past few months is losing steam, even in the countries where virus numbers are falling. The risk now is... 23rd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Policy stimulus won’t boost inflation in the near term The effects of demand weakness should continue to dominate those of supply constraints, leaving underlying inflation subdued in most parts of the world over the next few years. Policy measures... 21st September 2020 · 14 mins read
Global Economics Focus What can we learn from past pandemics? The macroeconomic consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic are likely to be very different from those of previous pandemics, largely because of the unprecedented response by governments and central banks... 16th September 2020 · 18 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global recovery has entered a slower phase Economic activity rose sharply in most economies as lockdowns eased during May and June. But, outside China, GDP is still some way below pre-COVID levels and there are signs that renewed virus fears... 11th September 2020 · 15 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch Average inflation targets from a global perspective For the past thirty years the orthodoxy has been that central banks should focus on controlling inflation, targeting a rate (normally 2%) over a key policy horizon (often 18 months to two years ahead)... 9th September 2020 · 13 mins read
Global Economics Update Upside inflation risks are mainly a few years away On the face of it, the rise in core inflation in several advanced economies in July seems to challenge the idea that lower demand will dominate lower supply in the tug of war over consumer prices. But... 28th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Trade Monitor World trade starts on the long road to recovery The record monthly rise in global trade volumes in June was little surprise given both the size of the falls earlier in the year and that, by this point, most countries were past the worst of their... 26th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update What to make of August’s mixed bag of flash PMIs At first sight, the latest batch of flash PMIs suggests that recoveries in advanced economies are heading in different directions. However, this has a lot to do with individual economies being in... 21st August 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Consumer recovery wavers amid virus fears GDP data for Q2 revealed sharp declines in activity in all major economies except China, driven primarily by slumps in consumer spending. Retail sales data for May and June pointed to an encouragingly... 13th August 2020 · 15 mins read
