Global Economics Update CPI measurement problems dwarfed by other concerns The impact of the lockdowns on the ability of statisticians to collect price data means that measures of inflation will be less accurate than normal. However, this will probably have little impact on... 6th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Industrial output to fall at double-digit pace Manufacturing PMIs for April fell sharply, but the way the surveys are constructed means that conditions may be even worse than the headline figures suggest. Indeed, the sub-components of the surveys... 4th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Trade Monitor A weak start to what will be a dreadful year for world trade Whilst the CPB world trade data showed another small drop in February, with lockdowns taking effect across much of the world in March, we expect much sharper falls in the coming months. In total, we... 24th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Modelling the shock to OECD household spending The early evidence suggests that household consumption in OECD economies may not have collapsed by as much as many fear in March. But as the boost from food stockpiling fades, overall consumer... 17th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Another 5% global contraction coming in Q2 A host of global indicators are showing the devastating effects of the coronavirus and related containment measures on the world economy. The global services PMI dropped to its lowest level on record... 9th April 2020 · 12 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch Monetary policy pushing new limits What a difference a month makes. At the time of our last Global Central Bank Watch, monetary policymakers in advanced economies had taken a cautious but relatively sanguine attitude to the coronavirus... 8th April 2020 · 11 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs may understate severity of downturn March’s small rise in the global manufacturing PMI was driven entirely by a rebound in China and masked sharp declines elsewhere. The survey already points to falls in global production, but it is... 1st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Coronavirus crisis to drag inflation down While the coronavirus crisis will have both upward and downward effects on prices, we expect the net impact to be significantly disinflationary, for the advanced economies at least, over the next year... 31st March 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Virus to reduce world trade by a fifth in 2020 The latest trade figures from the CPB revealed only a small fall in world trade volumes in January, but export orders from the PMI surveys have since slumped. With the coronavirus plunging the world... 25th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack World economy heading for recession We were among the first to argue that disruption related to the COVID-19 outbreak would bring an end to the world economy’s 43-quarter growth streak. Now that the coronavirus has become a pandemic... 13th March 2020 · 9 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Scandinavia & Switzerland: Retail still in the doldrums All-property rental growth eased across most markets in 2019, but the slowdown was concentrated in the retail sector. Admittedly, the Swiss markets remain a bright spot as prime retail rents increased... 27th February 2020 · 6 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Emerging Europe: Retail outperforms Western Europe Consistent with softer economic growth, annual rental growth for office and industrial property in CEE markets slowed in Q4. However, rental growth picked up for retail, bucking the downward trend... 26th February 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Further slowdown in capital value growth ahead Although euro-zone rental value growth slowed in 2019, further falls in property yields supported capital values. Despite the soft economic backdrop, capital value growth should hold up in coming... 21st February 2020 · 9 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Returns to recover as retail emerges from slump A subdued economic outlook and continued contraction in retail are expected to weigh on all-property rents and returns this year. In the near-term, rising property yields will be the result of the... 20th February 2020 · 38 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Dec.) Improving sentiment pushed house purchase mortgage approvals to a 29-month high in December. But Boris Johnson’s election win has done nothing to improve the housing market fundamentals. With house... 31st January 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK Finance Mortgage Lending (Dec.) The UK Finance mortgage approvals data provides further tentative evidence that demand picked up at the end of 2019. But with Brexit-related uncertainty set to intensify later this year and with the... 27th January 2020 · 2 mins read
