UK Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) October’s fall in retail sales volumes was especially concerning as stores refrained from raising prices at all. This heightens the risk that consumer spending growth could slow in Q4 from Q3’s 0.4% q... 14th November 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Upside risks of the election outweigh downside risks As the markets have not fully priced in the Conservatives winning the general election on 12th December and securing a Brexit deal, if that were to happen we suspect the pound would climb from $1.28... 13th November 2019 · 14 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Economy could hit the government’s lead in the polls Although we estimate that the 0.2% q/q contraction in GDP in Q2 was followed by a 0.4% q/q rise in Q3, it is clear that the economy is spluttering rather than firing on all cylinders. We think that... 6th November 2019 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Update UK versus South Africa: On and off the rugby pitch With England and South Africa battling for the right to lift the Webb Ellis Cup in the Rugby World Cup final this weekend, we’ve been pondering which of the two economies would come out on top in a... 31st October 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Who’s investing and who’s not? The weakness in business investment since the EU referendum has been concentrated in IT & machinery, transport and non-residential buildings so those areas may enjoy the biggest rebound if there is a... 29th October 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Further upside for sterling if Brexit deal is approved If Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal is approved in Parliament soon, we expect the pound would rise from $1.29 now to about $1.35 and 10-year gilt yields would increase from 0.72% to around 0.90% by the end... 22nd October 2019 · 9 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Sep.) September’s better-than-expected public finances figures do not change this year’s overarching themes of higher spending and borrowing. Nonetheless, there is a high chance that the Chancellor will... 22nd October 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update How high could the pound go? If a Brexit deal is signed and ratified then sterling could rise further over the next few weeks or months, from $1.28 to $1.35 (€1.17). If interest rates were then to rise, sterling could hit $1.40 (... 16th October 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Aug.) The drop in employment and tick down in wage growth in August is further evidence that deeper fissures are starting to appear in the labour market. However, the unemployment rate is still low and wage... 15th October 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Outlook softer whatever happens with Brexit Regardless of what happens with Brexit between now and 31st October, the recent weakening in both the global and domestic data has led us to revise down our GDP growth forecasts in all three of our... 14th October 2019 · 26 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Outlook softer whatever happens with Brexit Regardless of what happens with Brexit between now and 31st October, the recent weakening in both the global and domestic data has led us to revise down our GDP growth forecasts in all three of our... 14th October 2019 · 26 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Two borders, four years, one interest rate cut? The frosty response from the EU to the Prime Ministers latest proposal for a Brexit deal means that there is a high chance that Brexit is delayed again until 31st January. If there is a delay, then at... 4th October 2019 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Focus How low can the natural rate of unemployment go? A continued decline in the natural rate of unemployment over the past 15 years means that there is probably a little bit more slack in the labour market than indicated by the near-record low... 2nd October 2019 · 14 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) Despite the rise in the manufacturing PMI in September, it remains at a low level and suggests the industrial sector contracted again in Q3. However, we still doubt that manufacturing will pull the... 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Headwinds to growth blowing harder Despite the headwinds from the global economic slowdown and the political chaos around Brexit, there are still good reasons to think that GDP grew in Q3. However, it is clear that the performance of... 27th September 2019 · 8 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Confidence (Sep.) September’s small rise in consumer confidence probably reflects the falling chances of a no deal Brexit rather than an improvement in the underlying economy. And it still leaves confidence at a pretty... 27th September 2019 · 2 mins read
