Latin America Economics Update Takeaways from Argentina’s latest IMF review One key point contained in the IMF’s latest quarterly review of Argentina’s bailout programme is that the Fund is now expecting the government to run a primary deficit this year (having expected a... 16th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What next for fiscal policy? With budget deficits still large in Brazil and Argentina, fiscal policy there will continue to be tightened over the coming years. But small budget deficits in Mexico, Chile and Peru mean that... 15th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Regional recovery to be slow-going After a terrible start to the year, we expect economic growth in Latin America to pick up over the next 12-18 months. However, recoveries in most cases will be weak. Indeed, our GDP forecasts for many... 12th July 2019 · 27 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (May) The much larger-than-expected drop in Mexican industrial production, of 2.1% m/m, reinforces our downbeat view on the economy, and is likely to push the central bank towards cutting interest rates at... 12th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jun.) The large drop in Mexican inflation, from 4.3% y/y in May to 3.9% y/y in June, is likely to be followed by another sizeable fall this month. That should see Banxico inch further towards interest rate... 9th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Hurdles ahead for the Mercosur-EU trade deal The preliminary trade deal between Mercosur (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay) and the EU, if implemented in full, would boost potential growth in the bloc, perhaps by as much as 0.75-1.0%-pt... 1st July 2019 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil pensions delay, Argentina CA, Banxico dissenter It’s been a noisy week in Brazilian politics but, while the chances of some kind of pension reform being approved this year have risen, we think the fiscal savings will be smaller than many are... 28th June 2019 · 6 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier financial markets underperform Frontier financial markets have made gains over the past month, but have generally underperformed their emerging market counterparts. The performance of equity markets has been mixed. And currencies... 27th June 2019 · 8 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Investors go from too hawkish to too dovish Investors have rapidly come round to our dovish view on Latin American monetary policy but, if anything, they have probably now gone too far in anticipating large rate cuts across the region over the... 25th June 2019 · 12 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jun.) The sharp fall in Brazilian mid-month inflation, from 4.9% y/y in May to 3.8% y/y in June, coming alongside positive newsflow surrounding pension reform, tips the balance towards a 25bp cut in the... 25th June 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Will Argentina default? One point being overlooked in the debate surrounding the sustainability of Argentine sovereign debt is that there is a significant risk of default even if an investor-friendly candidate wins October’s... 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update US sanctions PDVSA, next few months critical The decision by the US to impose sanctions on Venezuela’s state-owned oil company, PDVSA, will lead to a large loss of export earnings in the next few months. If Maduro can cling on to power during... 29th January 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update US sanctions PDVSA, next few months critical The decision by the US to impose sanctions on Venezuela’s state-owned oil company, PDVSA, will lead to a large loss of export earnings in the next few months. If Maduro can cling on to power during... 29th January 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Pricing Amlo risk, Brazil’s GDP quirk Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s announcement that he will postpone oil auctions adds to a series of populist moves that have rattled local markets, and we reckon this has resulted in a... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus How do Lat Am central banks set policy? Our Taylor rules suggest that central banks in Latin America attach most importance to the latest inflation rate and the current output gap when setting policy. Some central banks (notably Mexico)... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
