Europe Commercial Property Update Will higher corporate credit spreads produce a spike in property yields? In view of their strong past relationship, the latest jump in corporate bond yields could be a sign of an imminent turning point for European property markets. However, we are inclined to look through... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) The growth rate of our M3 broad money measure slowed to a three-and-a-half year low of 4.1% in December, but the slightly narrower M2 measure increased by a solid 6.0% last year, while bank loans... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM debt: recapping the risks The dangers posed by a rapid build-up in EM debt have come back into the spotlight in recent weeks. In this Focus we revisit the lessons from history. Three points stand out – with potentially ominous... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Can we believe the ECB this time? We said after December’s “Draghi disappointment” that we would take future verbal policy steers from the ECB with a healthy pinch of salt. But there are some good reasons to expect the President and... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB stokes expectations again... this time it must meet them The ECB signalled firmly today that further policy loosening is imminent. While we are wary of putting too much faith in its communications after last month’s disappointment, there are good reasons to... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Slowdown in bank lending to continue Today’s Senior Loan Officer Survey showed that loan demand remained subdued last quarter. While the survey has not painted an accurate picture of credit conditions lately, it suggests that the recent... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Greece pass its first bailout review? There would appear to be a good chance that Greece will pass the first formal review of its third bailout programme. But nothing is certain and even a successful outcome won’t necessarily mark the... 19th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions still supportive Broad money and private sector credit have continued expanding steadily in recent months. In advanced economies as a whole, credit has been growing rapidly while in emerging economies it has slowed... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q4) Lenders reported rising credit availability for both commercial and residential property in the final quarter of last year. And expected demand suggests that interest in buy-to-let is holding up... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Dec.) Today’s data suggest that lending to the real economy remained strong at the end of last year, which should help support economic activity in the coming months. The loose monetary stance currently... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update No sign (yet) of an EM credit crunch EM credit growth remains weak by its usual standards but there is no evidence (yet) of a widespread “credit crunch” that could be the precursor to a more serious downturn in economic activity. 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What is the best way to reduce public sector debt? The easiest way to cut the government debt ratio would be to let economic growth do the work. Yet this could take decades. Cutting it faster would mean running smaller deficits at first, then... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Pick up in part-time earnings not enough Part-time earnings have picked up speed in recent months. But they are still rising at a slower rate than a few years ago and would have to pick up much further in order for the Bank of Japan to meet... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update On the link between US economic, equity and credit cycles An increase in Moody’s seasoned Baa-rated US corporate bond yield preceded all seven recessions that have taken place in the US in the past fifty years. What’s more, in six of those cases, the... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Will the Riksbank put its money where its mouth is? Sweden’s Riksbank is likely to have to follow through on its pledge to intervene in the foreign exchange market. But the strength of the domestic economy and the likelihood of more ECB QE means that... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Should we be alarmed by the rise in US corporate credit spreads? 5th January 2016 · 1 min read
