China Economics Focus Credit risks rising but crisis not imminent A renewed acceleration in credit growth has brought concerns about a Chinese debt crisis back to the fore. Investors are right to be worried: dealing with the unsustainable build-up of debt is one of... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are the monetary data pointing to global downturn? While some recent survey evidence has hinted that loan growth in the US may be about to slow, money and credit data in the four major advanced economies as a whole so far provide little support for... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Bank troubles intensify downside risks to growth The renewed concerns over the health of the euro-zone’s banks present an awkward policy dilemma for the European Central Bank and further raise the downside risks to the currency union’s economy. 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portuguese Government struggling to resist austerity The European Commission made only minor concessions to the Portuguese Government over its 2016 Budget and the pace of fiscal consolidation will still be faster this year than last. This suggests that... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will fiscal policy derail the recovery? Contrary to what many newspaper headlines claimed after the Autumn Statement towards the end of last year, we have not reached the end of austerity. Not in the slightest. However, we think that the... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina debt offer encouraging, but more work still to do Argentina’s debt proposal to US holdout creditors is an encouraging development, but there are still a number of hurdles to overcome in order for the government to return to global capital markets. 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will negative rates lower bank lending rates? The introduction of a negative interest rate on a small portion of excess reserves has already reduced corporate bond yields, and we think that banks may also lower lending rates somewhat. However... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Will capital controls work? Many countries facing balance of payments strains have found that large outflows continue even after they tighten capital controls. China though stands a better chance of success. The capital account... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack A weak start to the year Hard data for the fourth quarter of last year, including GDP estimates for some countries and industrial production and retail sales figures for the region as a whole, suggest that euro-zone GDP... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Demand for business loans slumps The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Survey points to a fairly sharp drop-off in the growth rate of loans to businesses, which suggests that investment will remain muted in the first half of this year... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Dec.) On the face of it, December’s household borrowing figures will not have eased mounting concerns regarding rapid unsecured credit growth and the sustainability of the consumer recovery. However, we do... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Jan.) & Money and Credit (Dec.) The January Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey showed that the sector started 2016 on a slightly better footing. But with headwinds to the sector remaining, any near-term improvement is likely to be... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Loan rumours leave key questions unanswered A reported US$3.5bn loan from the World Bank and AfDB would only cover about 15% of Nigeria’s gross external financing requirement. In any case, a loan would come with politically difficult conditions... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) December’s euro-zone monetary data suggested that money and lending growth in the currency union has peaked, adding to the case for the ECB to loosen monetary policy significantly in March. 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How sustainable are public debt burdens? Over the past few years, the governments of most advanced economies have made a lot of progress in repairing the damage caused to their public finances by the global financial crisis. The majority... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumer credit not a concern yet The pick-up in unsecured borrowing growth is starting to ring alarm bells, but we do not think that this poses a major threat – at least not yet. 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
