Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) Corporate bond yields have collapsed since the Bank of Japan adopted negative interest rates. However, with bonds only accounting for a quarter of corporate debt, bank lending rates would also have to... 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Our Tracker suggests that aggregate EM capital outflows declined markedly last month, to around $40bn, one of the lowest figures in the past year. This was driven by a fall in outflows from China... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is the rise in auto loans a concern? The rapid growth of auto loans in recent years has prompted claims that the next unsustainable debt bubble is emerging. For now, however, there appears to be little cause for concern. Although the... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jan.) January’s household borrowing figures will only have added to mounting concerns regarding rapid unsecured credit growth and the sustainability of the consumer recovery. However, at this stage we do... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) January’s euro-zone monetary data added to the evidence that economic growth in the currency union is slowing, putting further pressure on the ECB to loosen monetary policy significantly at its... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: anatomy of a budget meltdown We estimate that only one-sixth of the jump in Brazil’s budget deficit over the past two years has been due to a drop in tax receipts. Instead, the bulk (five-sixths) has been due to a rise in... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Banking sector fears overdone One of the main areas of concern in markets in recent weeks has been the banking sector, both in the UK and overseas. However, we do not think that this pessimism about the UK’s banking sector is... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Lower interest rates to save Osborne’s bacon again While most developments since November’s Autumn Statement bode poorly for the public finances, lower interest rates should provide an offset. However, the Chancellor would be unwise to spend this... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Credit growth still strong in the US, and rebounding in China Broad money growth has slowed somewhat in the four major advanced economies in recent months. However, bank lending to the private sector, which is a better guide to economic prospects, has generally... 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What measures are needed to revive the banking sector? Comments last week from RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan that local banks are in need of "deep surgery" has refocused attention on the ailing sector. Large-scale capital injections, increased private... 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil slump unlikely to cause major problems in Gulf banking sectors The slump in oil prices has raised fears that banks in the Gulf could come under strain, as governments withdraw deposits, foreign exchange reserves are depleted and assets begin to sour. But, while... 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jan.) Today’s data point to a sharp acceleration in credit growth going into 2016. This is consistent with our view that growth is more likely to pick up than slow over the coming quarters. 16th February 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) While domestic lending continues to expand at a steady pace, the bigger story is the continued expansion in cross-border lending. Even though banks have curtailed their exposure to China, overall... 16th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Risks of major renminbi devaluation are exaggerated The lack of clarity in China’s data and clumsy communication of policy changes have allowed many scare stories to proliferate. Nonetheless, there is little justification for fears that the renminbi is... 15th February 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC still far from exhausting reserves The idea that the People’s Bank is running out of FX reserves doesn’t stand up to scrutiny. But the fact that many take it seriously is a sign of how far sentiment has swung against China. 15th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus A closer look at financial conditions Financial conditions have tightened in recent months, as the dollar has continued to trend higher, corporate credit spreads have widened and stock markets have suffered a correction. Nevertheless... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
