US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) & Int. Trade (Nov.) The more modest 156,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in December suggests that labour market conditions weakened just a fraction in the closing stages of last year. Nevertheless, that is still a... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Nov.) Headline wage growth remained close to zero in November and part-time wages would have to rise at a much stronger pace to generate faster gains in consumer prices. 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market close to full employment We estimate that non-farm payroll employment growth picked up to 200,000 in December. And although the unemployment rate may have edged back up to 4.7%, this would still leave it below Fed officials’... 3rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Labour market slack increasing Nowhere is the lingering damage to the economy caused by the commodity price slump more evident than in the labour market. Unemployment is still rising sharply in the worst-affected regions, while... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Border adjustment proposal is equal parts genius and crazy The switch to a so-called ‘border adjustment’ system of corporate tax, which was included in the House Republicans’ ‘Better Way’ proposals earlier this year, is beginning to draw more attention in the... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM recovery dependent on China The EM world is now growing at its fastest pace in nearly two years. According to our GDP tracker, EM GDP growth in October reached 3.5% y/y, which is the strongest since January 2015. China has been... 21st December 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Reform agenda takes off in 2016 2016 will be remembered as the year that Prime Minister Modi finally began to deliver on promises of much-needed economic reform. However, with a number of state elections due to take place over the... 21st December 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Mixed performance in Q3, but surveys bode well for Q4 Recent national accounts data showed a marked divergence in quarterly economic growth in Q3, with the Swiss economy stagnating while the Icelandic economy expanded by an impressive 4.6% q/q. In the... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Underlying momentum in economy still sluggish The 3.5% annualised rebound in third-quarter GDP, after the 1.3% contraction in the second quarter caused by wildfire-related disruptions to oil production, is encouraging, but the underlying momentum... 19th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Survey evidence points to solid GDP growth The survey evidence has strengthened considerably in recent months and even though fourth-quarter GDP growth will probably fall back to 2.2% annualised, as the third-quarter spike in exports is... 19th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Good start to the festive season There has been no sign of a let-up in the strong pace of high-street spending growth at the start of the festive season. But it seems doubtful that spending will maintain its recent strength in the... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Nov.) The improvement in jobs growth in recent months provides further evidence that the fall in GDP in the third quarter was a blip rather than anything more worrying. But while the lower underemployment... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) The manufacturing PMI was the highest in December in almost a year and supports our view that the economy continued to expand at a robust pace this quarter. 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Oct.) The number of people in work fell slightly in October, suggesting that some of the labour market’s recent resilience may now be fading. But we doubt the weakness will escalate to an extent that puts... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Oct./Nov.) There are some tentative signs that the jobs market has lost some of its earlier strength. But we don’t expect any weakening to be particularly severe. 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus The persistent part-time problem The recent rise in the share of people working part-time but who would like to work longer will continue to restrain wage growth for another couple of years yet. This part-time problem means that a... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
