Canada Chart Pack Exporters still stuck in low growth gear The continuing sluggish performance by export-orientated manufacturers this year is another reason to believe that the Bank of Canada will reduce interest rates soon. In contrast to market... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment, Retail Sales & Household Spending (Oct.) While the jobless rate held steady in October, the job-to-applicant ratio is approaching the record-highs from the early-1990s. However, the tighter labour market has yet to translate into a visible... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Trump win raises prospect of fiscal stimulus Donald Trump’s election victory has raised the prospect of a major fiscal stimulus next year, at a time when the economy is already close to full employment. The subsequent surge in Treasury yields... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB must do more despite rising inflation expectations According to both market measures and survey measures, inflation expectations have been rising. Yet both short and longer-term inflation expectations remain undesirably low. And while the recent... 25th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Is a major slowdown happening right under our noses? It’s now possible that the Australian economy didn’t grow at all in the third quarter. It may even have contracted. That would be hard to ignore, especially when jobs growth has slumped to a two-year... 25th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack New Zealand trumps Australia The recent earthquake in New Zealand may put a small dent in activity in the near-term, but it won’t prevent the economy from growing by around 3.5% next year. In fact, the extra boost to activity... 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Anti-corruption drive has further to run The government’s shock demonetisation announcement earlier this month was its boldest measure yet to tackle corruption and formalise large parts of the shadow economy, but it is unlikely to be the... 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) Following five straight monthly gains, the small decline in the manufacturing PMI in November is hardly a disaster. In fact, the survey suggests that price pressures have started to strengthen again. 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Stuck in the slow lane Having slowed in Q3, we expect growth in Emerging Europe to recover over the course of the next year as Russia continues to pull out of recession and investment in the Central European economies... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Wage growth has further to rise We estimate that non-farm payroll employment growth picked up to 180,000 in November, which was probably enough to cut the unemployment rate to 4.8%. Annual wage growth probably held steady at a seven... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Labour Force Survey (Sep.) September’s Norwegian Labour Force Survey (LFS) provided some hints that the recent rise in unemployment might be coming to an end. Meanwhile, other perhaps more reliable measures of unemployment have... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Property market starting to cool One of the key drivers of the economic turnaround this year, the property market,is starting to cool. Growth in the prices of new residential properties slumped inOctober in the largest (tier 1 and... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Oct.) While employment increased in October for the first time since July, revisions to September’s figures meant that the annual rate of employment growth fell to a two-year low of 0.9% y/y, which will do... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Sep.) The number of people in work dropped back slightly in September, reflecting a relatively broad-based slowing in the labour market across different job types. 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Sep./Oct.) Today’s figures confirmed the indications from the surveys that the leave vote is starting to sap the jobs recovery of its previous strength. 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Commodity prices shift from headwind to tailwind The recent leap in the prices of the main commodity exports of Australia and New Zealand will boost domestic demand in both economies, but it is unlikely to lead to much faster wage growth and much... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
