Japan Chart Pack Treading water Despite having a sizeable output gap, Japan’s economy has expanded at a pace no stronger than potential this year so slack in the economy has not been reduced. One reason is that consumer spending has... 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Oct.) Allowing for seasonal factors, the Economy Watchers Survey climbed to a ten-month high in October. However, the index remains consistent with sluggish activity in the manufacturing sector. 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NFIB & JOLT surveys suggest wage growth has further to rise The latest NFIB and JOLT surveys provide further evidence that labour market slack is diminishing only very gradually. That said, they suggest that the recent acceleration in wage growth is set to... 8th November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Sep.) Wage growth remained weak in September as regular earnings are barely rising. The upshot is that the tight labour market has yet to generate noticeable cost pressures. 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack World economy in decent shape on eve of US elections Investor concerns about the outcome of the US presidential election have caused substantial currency and equity market movements in the past few weeks. However, the Vix “fear gauge” has not yet risen... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Surge in part-time employment in Australia may soon slow While the structural shift towards part-time employment has further to run, an easing in economic growth in industries with a higher than average share of part-time employees suggests that the speed... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Oct.) & Trade (Sep.) The unexpected 43,900 increase in employment in October was driven entirely by gains in part-time work, which is more evidence that the economy is struggling to generate quality high-paying jobs. Even... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) The solid gain in employment and the acceleration in hourly wage growth in October will reinforce expectations that the Fed will hike interest rates in December (assuming that the election doesn’t... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Economy sustains its momentum but price pressures rise The latest business surveys suggest that the economy maintained its strength at the start of Q4. Gains in both the Markit/CIPS services and construction PMIs in October left the economy-wide composite... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Sep.) September’s euro-zone unemployment data suggest that, while the labour market is still strengthening, it is doing so at a slow pace. And forward-looking indicators suggest that the labour market... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q3) While employment growth was stronger than expected in the third quarter, wage growth remained worryingly weak. This will do little to allay the RBNZ’s concerns about the inflation outlook and as a... 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Retail sales growth slows sharply as inflation rises The euro-zone’s consumer sector appears to have had another poor quarter in Q3. Retail sales volumes were flat in August, while timelier national data point to a contraction in sales in September... 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Germany-France divergence looks set to last Last week brought some good news about the euro-zone economy, with October’s composite PMI and EC ESI both pointing to an acceleration of growth. But both the hard data and survey indicators look much... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly How fast will inflation rise? Both headline and underlying inflation in Australia will probably rise over the next year and, by boosting economic growth and reducing spare capacity, the recent leap in commodity prices raises the... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Household Spending, Unemployment & Consumer Prices (Sep.) The labour market is getting increasingly tight. However, consumer spending remains sluggish and the slowdown in underlying inflation shows that price pressures continue to moderate. 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Wage growth still relatively subdued We estimate that non-farm payroll employment increased by 190,000 in October. Given the recent rebound in labour force participation, however, we suspect that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5... 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
