Japan Data Response Tankan (Q4) While firms’ capital spending plans remain much weaker than in previous years, the rebound in the headline index of today’s Tankan should encourage the Bank of Japan to refrain from further easing. 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Reflation in the US, but not elsewhere Even before the latest rise in oil prices, the average inflation rate in the G7 was set to rebound to over 2% early next year. In the US, Donald Trump’s planned fiscal stimulus should boost US demand... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack The tide for the yen has turned The Bank of Japan’s favourite gauge of underlying price pressures remains just a touch above zero. However, spare capacity is narrowing and growth in part-time pay has started to pick up. What’s more... 12th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How long will the consumer spending spree last? There are concerns that the expected rise in inflation will cause consumer spending growth to slow sharply ahead. Indeed, households would probably have to run their saving rates far below all-time... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What to expect from the upcoming Shunto? We expect the upcoming spring wage negotiations to result in base pay hikes of only 0.5% or so, which would be broadly in line with the increase agreed upon this year. Even with output per employee... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What we know about fourth-quarter GDP The fall in GDP in the third quarter means that the data for the fourth quarter will determine whether or not Australia succumbs to its first recession in 25 years. We think it will escape, but only... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Economy weathering political risks The euro-zone economy still seems to be weathering the effects of political upsets and uncertainty at home and abroad well. The PMI and EC survey indicators rose in November, consistent with an... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Nov.) Today’s Economy Watchers Survey showed that current conditions are the most buoyant since 2014’s sales tax hike. However, the survey still points to a slowdown in job growth in coming months. 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Decent economic growth but challenges lie ahead The Nordic and Swiss economies generally recorded positive growth in Q3 and look set to do so again in Q4. But with growth in their main trading partner, the euro-zone, set to slow and a number of... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Oct.) Wage growth picked up marginally in October but remained very weak. While wages are rising more strongly allowing for falling working hours, the tight labour market has yet to create noticeable cost... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Fiscal stimulus coming, but trade a wildcard Donald Trump’s unexpected election victory means that we are likely to see a major fiscal stimulus enacted in the first half of next year. As a result, we now expect GDP growth to accelerate to 2.7%... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Little sign that the economy has slowed in Q4 Both households and businesses appear to have been undeterred by Brexit uncertainty in Q3. What’s more, the latest business surveys suggest that the economy will turn in another solid performance in... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Nov.) While consumer sentiment worsened in November, household inflation expectations seem to have turned the corner. 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Nov.) The unexpected 10,700 increase in employment in November was driven entirely by gains in part-time work, while the decline in full-time jobs provided futher evidence that the economy is still... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) November’s employment report wasn’t perfect, with average hourly earnings contracting by 0.1% m/m, but the solid 178,000 gain in payroll employment and the drop in the unemployment rate to a nine-year... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Oct.) & Italian GDP (Q3) October’s euro-zone unemployment data show that the labour market recovery has regained some pace. But the rate of unemployment is still high and recent developments are consistent with pretty slow... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
