Africa Economics Weekly Ghana’s fiscal mess, data & decisions wrap Official statements by the authorities in Ghana signalled commitment to restoring fiscal and debt sustainability, and left little doubt that this will include a sovereign debt restructuring. Meanwhile... 25th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Banxico debate, Lula tacks back, Argentina’s struggles The further rise in core inflation in the first half of November suggests that the debate at Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) over when to end the tightening cycle is set to heat up. The risks are... 25th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly 75bp hike still on the table, QT talk intensifying Comments by ECB officials suggest that a slowdown in the pace of tightening, from a 75bp to a 50bp hike, still looks likely in December. But it’s not yet a done deal, with some officials seemingly... 25th November 2022 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE losses add pressure on the public finances The Treasury has started to make payments to the Bank of England’s Asset Purchase Facility (APF) to cover the losses it has racked up because of the Bank of England’s gilt purchases. While this won’t... 25th November 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update RRR cut intended to provide lockdown support The reduction in the required reserve ratio that the PBOC just announced will help banks follow through on a directive to defer loan repayments from firms struggling with widening lockdown... 25th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly New Zealand will enter prolonged recession We already predicted that New Zealand would enter recession a month ago and the RBNZ’s determination to push the economy off a cliff to get inflation under control means the downturn will be even... 25th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Prospect of rate cuts may drive DM sovereign yields lower in 2023 Despite the lingering uncertainty over how far policy rates will rise in many advanced economies, we expect the economic data to shift the debate towards rate cuts next year, putting more downward... 24th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Construction the next shoe to drop The big surprise so far this year has been the resilience of housing starts which, despite falling from their 10-month high of 300,000 annualised in September, remained at a relatively strong 267,000... 24th November 2022 · 8 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Past peak inflation – what now for EM policymakers? 1669906800 Inflation appears to have finally peaked for emerging markets – but how quickly will price pressures now ease, and what will that mean for the 2023 outlook?
Africa Economics Update SARB to keep taming “inflation monster” for a while Today’s decision in South Africa to raise the benchmark rate by 75bp, to 7.00%, signalled that policymakers remain in inflation-fighting mode and the tightening cycle has further to run. That said... 24th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Nov.) The further fall in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 8.1% y/y, in the first two weeks of November was driven by easing non-core price pressures. But core inflation picked up, which will strengthen... 24th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update When will EM central banks turn to interest rate cuts? Monetary tightening cycles in EMs are advanced relative to DMs, and are now drawing to a close in many countries. Elevated inflation will mean that policy will stay tight over the coming months, but... 24th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Tightening cycle not yet finished This morning’s 75bp increase in the Riksbank’s policy rate was in line with expectations, and both the press statement and Monetary Policy Report are consistent with our view that policymakers will... 24th November 2022 · 3 mins read
