Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) Although the annual rates of CPI-median and CPI-trim edged up in October, the 3-month annualised rates that the Bank of Canada is now focussed on declined. As that for CPI-median is now in the 1% to 3... 16th November 2022 · 2 mins read
RBNZ Watch Rates will peak at 5.0% but will be cut by end-2023 With the labour market and inflation going from strength to strength and the next meeting three months away, we expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to hike the overnight cash rate by 75bp at its... 16th November 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) It’s possible that the big leap in CPI inflation from 10.1% in September to a new 40-year high of 11.1% in October will mark the peak. But core inflation may yet rise further, which is why we think... 16th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Oct.) Data out of Nigeria showing a pick-up in inflation to 21.1% y/y in October offered little sign that price pressures are abating. And that’s before the effects of recent flooding and currency weakness... 15th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Oct.) Another bigger-than-expected increase in core inflation, to 7.9% in October, will keep the Riksbank focused on slowing demand when policymakers meet next week. We expect a further 75bp rate hike, to 2... 15th November 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer & Wholesale Prices (Oct.) The substantial falls in both headline consumer and wholesale price inflation in October reinforce our view that the Reserve Bank will slow the pace of monetary tightening in its next scheduled policy... 14th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Sovereigns tap dollar debt, dovish CEE central banks Governments in Turkey and Poland made a splash this week as they announced rare dollar bond issues. Turkey appears to be taking advantage of a period of low credit spreads while the decision in Poland... 11th November 2022 · 11 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s bad loans, inflation outlook brightening Brazil’s president-elect Lula sent local financial markets into a tailspin late this week after he stressed the need for higher spending, reinforcing our concerns that the country’s public debt... 11th November 2022 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank wants to see rise in unemployment Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said this week that the unemployment rate will need to rise to help restore price stability, but he also played down the significance of the strong gains in... 11th November 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Fiscal tightening may come later rather than sooner The big fiscal tightening set to be unveiled by the Chancellor at the Autumn Statement next Thursday is coming just as the recession begins. The clear risk is that the fiscal consolidation deepens the... 11th November 2022 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Housing risks rising; strong activity in Sweden Policymakers at the Riksbank and Norges Bank face a tricky balancing act. The latest housing indicators from Sweden and Norway have been very weak, implying that prices will fall. But October’s... 11th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Resilience in consumption won’t last The RBA Deputy Governor this week noted that the Bank is getting closer to the point where it can stop tightening, which creates some downside risks to our above-consensus interest rate forecasts... 11th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) 10th November 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Fiscal policy tightening just as the recession begins While the risk premium that pushed gilt yields up and the pound down after the mini-budget has mostly been reversed under the stewardship of Sunak and Hunt, the fear that the markets will baulk at any... 10th November 2022 · 9 mins read
