US Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The better than expected 0.3% m/m increase in core consumer prices in October won’t on its own persuade the Fed to drop its hawkish stance. But we expect this to mark the start of a much longer... 10th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch The signs of shifting cycles In recent weeks, attention has shifted from the likely size of rates hikes towards the timing of peaks and the prospect of ultimate cuts. History can tell us little about the likely profile since no... 10th November 2022 · 12 mins read
Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) Poland’s central bank (NBP) announced (very late by its usual standards) that it had left interest rates unchanged at 6.75% at today’s MPC meeting, confirming previous comments from policymakers that... 9th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt and Tunisia heading down different paths The recent IMF deals reached by governments in Egypt and Tunisia are positive developments and will help ease balance of payments strains in both countries. Egypt has already made progress with... 9th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update If it happens at all, ECB QT will be very slow The ECB might start quantitative tightening next year but that’s not guaranteed, and even if it does so we doubt that it will make much of a dent in its government bond holdings. As a result, interest... 9th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack ECB to keep hiking as stagflation intensifies The latest activity indicators show that the economy contracted in October, and the forward-looking measures of new orders and expectations suggest that the downturn will get worse. We have pencilled... 8th November 2022 · 11 mins read
US Economics Update Fed's losses a political rather than policy problem The Fed’s mounting losses are an expected result of surging interest rates and will not prevent officials from continuing to tighten policy, nor will they require the Treasury to step in and... 8th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Growth/inflation trade-off now a major test in Poland The Polish central bank’s dovish monetary policy stance is becoming increasingly at odds with the severity of inflation pressures and this reinforces our long-held view that inflation won’t return to... 8th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) 8th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly All eyes on a divided NBP, Israel’s election outcome The divergent views among policymakers at the National Bank of Poland (NBP) make it increasingly difficult to tell whether the central bank’s tightening cycle is coming to an end. Our central view is... 4th November 2022 · 10 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank’s dovish tilt looking premature The modest fiscal loosening unveiled in the Fall Economic Statement this week is unlikely to move the needle much for monetary policy, but the surge in employment in October and the acceleration in... 4th November 2022 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed’s dovish turn is still coming, eventually This week’s FOMC meeting may have dashed hopes that the Fed will follow the recent dovish tilts of some other central banks. But we still think Fed officials are underestimating the degree to which... 4th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Sifting through a week of ECB comments The raft of comments by ECB policymakers this week suggests that further rate hikes are on the horizon, but that the pace of tightening will slow soon. And with officials stressing how difficult it is... 4th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Peak rates approaching in Norway, Switzerland The Norges Bank shifted to a slower pace of tightening this week, and the latest data on the housing market suggest that there are downside risks to our forecast for the policy rate to hit 3% and stay... 4th November 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Doubting the BoE’s dovish tilt It may seem odd that we are still forecasting interest rates to rise from 3.00% to 5.00% when the Bank of England said this week that it expects rates to peak between 3.00% and 4.00%. But what happens... 4th November 2022 · 9 mins read
Event US Drop-In: Will October CPI justify more hawkish noises from the Fed? 1668092400 Our US Economics team held a briefing shortly after the October data release, in which they answered client questions and addressed key issues around what was happening at the Fed and Congress, inc
