ECB Watch ECB set to hike by 50bp; more to come next year There is a case for the ECB to raise interest rates by another 75bp next week, but we suspect that it will instead slow the pace to 50bp as policy is getting closer to “neutral”. This would mean... 8th December 2022 · 8 mins read
BoE Watch Peak is in sight, but we’re not there yet A shift from the 75 basis point hike in interest rates in November to a 50 basis point rise, from 3.00% to 3.50%, at the policy meeting on Thursday 15th December would show that the Monetary Policy... 8th December 2022 · 8 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Moderate recession to drive inflation lower The economy is heading for a moderate recession, as higher interest rates weigh on domestic demand and exports contract amid the global downturn. Weaker demand, together with lower commodity prices... 8th December 2022 · 20 mins read
India Economic Outlook End of tightening in sight The RBI has slowed the pace of rate hikes and is likely to call a halt to tightening in early 2023. As the economy weakens, rate cuts could come onto the agenda by late next year and materialise in... 8th December 2022 · 19 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch SNB to end tightening cycle with 50bp hike The SNB is likely to look through the recent fall in inflation and hike rates by 50bp next Thursday, to 1.0%, in line with market expectations. We now think that this will be the end of the tightening... 8th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s fiscal risks could keep rates higher for longer The statement accompanying the Brazilian central bank’s meeting yesterday, at which the Selic rate was left at 13.75%, made clear that policymakers are increasingly concerned about fiscal loosening... 8th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Nov.) Egypt’s CPI inflation rate jumped from 16.2% y/y in October to 18.7% y/y in November – its fastest pace in five years. The headline rate only is set to only climb higher and the Central Bank of Egypt... 8th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update The end of the tightening cycle? The Bank of Canada delivered a somewhat dovish 50bp rate hike today, by softening its explicit forward guidance that interest rates will need to rise further. Our GDP and inflation forecasts suggest... 7th December 2022 · 3 mins read
US Fed Watch Peak in rates coming into view The Fed is set to slow the pace of tightening with a 50bp rate hike at its meeting next week. Chair Jerome Powell will seek to ensure the move isn’t interpreted as a dovish ‘pivot’, and the Fed’s new... 7th December 2022 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Central banks to ease off the brakes as growth slows The recent resilience of economic activity in Latin America will not last and we think that growth will slow by more than most expect in 2023. Having been among the first to tighten monetary policy... 7th December 2022 · 25 mins read
UK Economic Outlook A tough year 2023 will be a tough year for the economy as the effects of the previous rises in inflation and previous hikes in interest rates (as well as a future rise from 3.00% now to a peak of 4.50% in early... 7th December 2022 · 27 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE inflation peaking, but long road back to target Headline inflation in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will peak in most countries in the next few months, at around 20% y/y, and should fall to single-digits across the region by end-2023. But we... 7th December 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update RBI’s tightening cycle drawing to a close The RBI slowed the pace of monetary tightening with a 35bp hike to the repo rate (to 6.25%) and, with headline inflation set to ease further and growth entering a softer patch, we think the central... 7th December 2022 · 3 mins read
