Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Tightening cycle not yet finished This morning’s 75bp increase in the Riksbank’s policy rate was in line with expectations, and both the press statement and Monetary Policy Report are consistent with our view that policymakers will... 24th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Rapid Response Sweden Riksbank Policy Meeting (Nov. 2022) 24th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: one more rate hike left The Bank of Korea (BoK) today raised interest rates by a further 25bps (to 3.25%) and the accompanying hawkish statement suggests the tightening cycle still has a little further to run. We are... 24th November 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Revising down peak Bank Rate from 5.00% to 4.50% With fiscal policy no longer expected to be ultra-loose and some signs emerging that domestic price pressures will ease further ahead, we no longer expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates... 23rd November 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM inflation has passed the peak Having surged for the best part of two years, EM inflation appears to have passed the peak in this cycle. Our measure of aggregate EM inflation dropped from 7.8% y/y in September to 7.4% y/y in... 23rd November 2022 · 9 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Oct.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate picked up unexpectedly in October, to 7.6% y/y, and the jump in core inflation will be a particular worry for policymakers. Another 75bp hike in the repo rate... 23rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will probably lift rates to 5.5% The Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked the overnight cash rate by 75bp as most had anticipated but signalled a much higher peak in the OCR than in August. We’re now forecasting another 75bp hike in... 23rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update What will the Bank make of the October CPI data? Although the annual rates of core inflation increased in October, we suspect the Bank of Canada will point to the declines in the 3-month annualised rates of CPI-trim and CPI-median to justify... 22nd November 2022 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update CBN shifting in less hawkish direction The Central Bank of Nigeria raised the benchmark rate by 100bp, to 16.50%, today, and MPC members appear to be itching to take their foot off the monetary policy brakes. But we suspect that the... 22nd November 2022 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack Economic resilience won’t stop inflation falling The resilience of consumer spending is keeping hopes of a soft landing alive. Although GDP growth looks to have slowed in the fourth quarter, and most leading indicators of recession are flashing red... 22nd November 2022 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update BoI slows the pace of tightening as economy softens The Bank of Israel slowed down the pace of tightening today with a 50bp rate hike, to 3.25%, as it emphasised the tightening delivered so far and the early signs that economic activity is slowing. We... 21st November 2022 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Higher rates feeding through to real economy The RBI has hiked interest rates by 190bps since May and, while that is relatively benign compared to the moves seen in many other EMs, this tightening is now feeding through to the economy. Purchases... 21st November 2022 · 9 mins read
