Europe Economics Weekly ECB’s hands are tied GDP data published this week confirmed that the euro-zone economy grew at a decent pace in the first half of the year. But this is unlikely to last, and next week we expect the first business surveys... 19th August 2022 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Korea: tightening cycle to finish by year-end With inflation at a 24-year high, the Bank of Korea (BoK) looks certain to raise interest rates again at its meeting on Thursday. We have pencilled in another 25bp hike, which would take the policy... 19th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Jul. 2022) Headline inflation was the highest since 1991 in July and we think it still has higher to climb. But this will not make the Bank of Japan budge on its ultra-easy monetary policy. 19th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT rate cut sowing the seeds of next currency crisis Turkey’s central bank stepped up its fight against economic orthodoxy by cutting its one-week repo rate by 100bp, to 13.00%, despite the backdrop of inflation at 80% and an extremely poor external... 18th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (July) Final inflation data for July underline that price pressures remain strong and broad-based. With wholesale natural gas and electricity prices having surged again in the weeks since July, retail gas... 18th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update 50 is the new 25 for the Norges Bank Following today’s decision by the Norges Bank to raise its policy rate by 50bp at the second consecutive meeting, we now expect the Bank to make it a hat-trick of 50bp hikes at the next meeting in... 18th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: tightening cycle still has some legs The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) today raised its policy rate by a further 50bps to 3.75%, and gave a strong indication that more rate hikes are likely over the coming months. That said, with... 18th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Pound likely to remain under pressure this year We think the Bank of England will hike interest rates by less than money markets now discount, which in turn should keep the pound under pressure against the dollar. 17th August 2022 · 7 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) While overall retail sales were unchanged in July, the details were far more encouraging, with a price-related fall in gasoline sales freeing up households to increase spending on other goods. With... 17th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM inflation nearing its peak Aggregate EM inflation came in at its highest rate since 2008 last month, but there are signs that it is starting to stabilise and it should fall back in the coming months. For central banks in... 17th August 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The encouraging evidence that the upward pressure on underlying inflation from global factors has started to ease will be of little comfort to the Bank of England given the signs that this is being... 17th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (Aug.) Home sales fell further below the pre-pandemic norm in July and pre-construction sales seem to have fallen through the floor, but there is no evidence yet that this is weighing on construction. 17th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The fall in headline inflation to 7.6% in July left it lower than the Bank of Canada’s recent forecast but, amid continued broad upward pressure on core prices, we still judge that the Bank is more... 16th August 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jul.) The fall in Indian wholesale price inflation in July reflects easing wholesale food inflation and lower commodity prices. But given both WPI and CPI inflation are still elevated, we think the RBI will... 16th August 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Jun/Jul.) June’s labour market figures revealed further evidence that the weaker economy is leading to a slightly less tight labour market. That said, by any metric the labour market is still exceptionally... 16th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update What recessions mean for the labour market Given that unemployment rates have usually risen significantly in recessions, it is tempting to conclude that history is about to repeat itself, to the frustration of policymakers seeking soft... 15th August 2022 · 5 mins read
