Africa Economics Update SARB will continue to tighten slowly South Africa’s headline inflation rate will stay close to the upper bound of the central bank’s 3-6% target range in the coming months before falling sharply in the second half of the year. Some MPC... 13th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank in hawkish mode The Bank moved into full-blown hawkish mode today, hiking its overnight policy rate by 50bp to 1.00% and announcing that quantitative tightening will start later this month, with no caps on the value... 13th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Five questions (and answers) on Pakistan’s crisis We held a Drop-In on the political and economic problems facing Pakistan earlier today (see an on-demand recording here). This Update answers some of the most common questions that we received. 13th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Surging food prices and supply fears a threat to EMs Most EMs are not heavily dependent on Russia or Ukraine for their domestic food supplies, but there are key pockets of vulnerability due to large wheat, corn and vegetable seed/oil exports to Turkey... 13th April 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) The rise in CPI inflation in March from 6.2% to a new 30-year high of 7.0% was the sixth upside surprise in as many months and will pile more pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates... 13th April 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economic Outlook Inflation will force the RBI’s hand The surge in global commodity prices will take a little gloss off India’s economic recovery this year but we still expect stronger GDP growth than the consensus. Higher commodity prices will also keep... 13th April 2022 · 19 mins read
Capital Daily We think Treasury yields will rise again even as inflation eases While we think US inflation peaked in March, we still expect long-term Treasury yields to grind higher over the rest of 2022. 12th April 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economic Outlook Economy will bend not break under higher rates We expect the economy to bend rather than break under the pressure of a rapid monetary tightening by the Fed. We anticipate that real economic growth will remain consistently below its 2% potential... 12th April 2022 · 22 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) The surge in energy prices helped drive headline CPI inflation up to a 40-year high of 8.5% in March but, with base effects set to become much more favourable and signs that monthly gains in core... 12th April 2022 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) & Industrial Production (Feb.) Headline consumer price inflation soared beyond even our above-consensus forecast in March and, given that it is likely to rise further over the coming months, we think the RBI will start hiking the... 12th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Final HICP (March) and ZEW (April) Final inflation data for Germany in March and the first survey of economic sentiment for April underline the acute problems which the German economy now faces. Energy inflation and underlying price... 12th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian inflation and rates to rise much further Egyptian inflation rose to a near-three year high in March and will continue to pick up on the back of the spillovers from the war in Ukraine and last month’s devaluation. We now think interest rates... 11th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Mar.) Although headline and core inflation came in below expectations in March, underlying price pressures are likely to push both measures up a bit in the coming months. Meanwhile, the Norges Bank is more... 11th April 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar.) Factory gate inflation picked up last month, though this was masked in the headline figures by base effects. Consumer prices continued to rise as well. Although the price of some goods will stay high... 11th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Mar.) The 7.6% m/m rise in consumer prices in Russia in March was the highest monthly increase since the 1990s. It pushed the headline inflation rate up to 16.7% y/y and we think it will rise towards 23% y... 8th April 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Upside risks to inflation continue to build We are growing more concerned about the upside risk to our inflation forecast in the coming months. That’s partly because pipeline price pressures have already risen by a bit more than we had... 8th April 2022 · 9 mins read
