Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Mar.) With euro-zone inflation rising even further above the ECB’s forecast, and likely to remain very high for the rest of the year, we think it won’t be long before the Bank starts raising interest rates. 1st April 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Price pressures are building The main focus next week will be the RBI’s policy announcement on Friday. We think the MPC will leave its policy settings unchanged, but we still expect the committee to ditch its dovish tone later... 1st April 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Mar.) Swiss inflation rose further above the SNB’s definition of price stability in March, and higher commodity prices and continued supply problems will keep it there for most of this year. Given the... 1st April 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Fiscal loosening adds fuel to inflation fire The huge expansion in public spending since the start of the pandemic is a key reason why we expect Australia’s GDP to have surpassed its pre-virus trend at the start of this year despite the drag on... 1st April 2022 · 6 mins read
China Chart Pack Waiting for action Efforts to stabilise China’s financial markets have been a short term success. Although in aggregate March was one of the worst months on record for portfolio outflows from onshore markets, there were... 31st March 2022 · 12 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Commodities boost Lat Am markets, economies less so High commodity prices caused by the war in Ukraine have driven a rally in Latin American currencies and equities this month, and are causing exports to surge. Weekly trade figures from Brazil and... 31st March 2022 · 16 mins read
Africa Chart Pack War in Ukraine: a varied impact across Africa Spillovers from the war in Ukraine will have a varied impact across Sub-Saharan Africa. Large oil producers such as Nigeria and Angola are benefitting from the surge in global oil prices but, for the... 31st March 2022 · 13 mins read
China Data Response China Official PMIs (Mar.) The surveys add to growing evidence of a large blow to service sector activity amid the latest virus surge. The hit to industry looks to have been much more modest. But even so, the economy is in the... 31st March 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Russia entering recession, slowdowns in CEE The war in Ukraine has devasted its economy, while Western sanctions are likely to push Russia into a deep contraction, with GDP set to fall by 12% this year. Immediate fears of a Russian sovereign... 30th March 2022 · 15 mins read
Capital Daily EZ inflation surprises suggest sell-off in bonds may resume While the sell-off in euro-zone government bonds has paused today despite the release of some stronger-than-expected inflation prints for Germany and Spain, we think that there is scope for it to... 30th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack External strains building in North Africa The Gulf stands to benefit from the war in Ukraine. Oil output is likely to be raised more quickly, while higher energy prices will boost export revenues by around 10% of GDP this year, providing some... 30th March 2022 · 15 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (March) After a further huge jump in March, German inflation is likely to average at least 7% this year, and there are plenty of upside risks, not least the threat of power shortages. With price pressures... 30th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook BoJ’s Yield Curve Control under threat We expect Japan’s economic output to return to its pre-virus path by the end of the year. With the recovery from the pandemic complete, we expect GDP growth to slow from 2.7% this year to just 1.0% in... 30th March 2022 · 23 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to hike aggressively as inflation surges With Governor Lowe warming to the idea of tighter policy, we’re sticking to our forecast that the RBA will start to hike rates in June. Our forecast that rates will peak at 1.75% is above the analyst... 30th March 2022 · 8 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Omicron recedes, but other headwinds emerge Successful vaccination campaigns allowed governments to keep economies open during the recent Omicron waves, and our Mobility Trackers suggest that activity held up much better than we had originally... 29th March 2022 · 15 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation outlook becomes more nuanced Less than a week after the Fed raised interest rates by 25bp at its policy meeting and issued projections showing that it intended to hike rates at each of the remaining six meetings this year, Chair... 25th March 2022 · 6 mins read
