UK Economics Upside risks to inflation continue to build We are growing more concerned about the upside risk to our inflation forecast in the coming months. That’s partly because pipeline price pressures have already risen by a bit more than we had... 8th April 2022 · 9 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile CPI (Mar.) The larger-than-expected rises in inflation in both Chile and Brazil last month (to 9.4% and 11.3%, respectively) support our view that their central banks will raise interest rates by more than most... 8th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Flodén leaves no room for ambiguity Riksbank policymaker Martin Flodén dialled up the hawkishness this week, arguing that monetary policy must respond to higher inflation. And with data due next week likely to show Swedish inflation in... 8th April 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the euro-zone heading for recession? The latest surveys suggest that the euro-zone economy was still growing at a decent pace in March, but the risk of it contracting in Q2 is rising. The main event over the weekend will be the first... 8th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Pakistan: PM Khan stumped, emergency hike by SBP In Pakistan, the week began with a constitutional crisis and it will likely end with a new Prime Minister at the helm following the Supreme Court ruling on Thursday. Prime Minister Khan’s successors... 8th April 2022 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Budget 2022 unlikely to move the needle for the Bank The government announced a smorgasbord of new policies in the 2022 Budget, but the total increase in the budget deficit, at just $7bn, was arguably far lower than some feared. Moreover, as most of the... 7th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Enduring supply-chain woes risk stoking higher inflation Although China’s Omicron wave means that its economy is facing its sharpest slowdown since early 2020, so far it looks like disruptions to global supply chains will be milder than those experienced... 7th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Stagflation risks rising The risk of stagflation has risen substantially. The latest surveys suggest that the economy held up pretty well in March, but the forward-looking indicators paint a much gloomier picture of the... 7th April 2022 · 12 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Mar.) The rise in Mexico’s headline and core inflation in March, to 7.45% y/y and 6.8% y/y respectively, has further to run in the near term as food and energy inflation edges higher. Broader price... 7th April 2022 · 2 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ to accelerate tightening cycle with 50bp hike Inflation is set to exceed the RBNZ’s forecasts yet again this year. With the Bank becoming increasingly worried that soaring inflation will dislodge inflation expectations, we think it will hike... 7th April 2022 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA to tighten more sharply than most anticipate We expect Australia’s GDP to surpass its pre-virus trend as soon as this quarter and to keep expanding at a robust pace thereafter. While wage growth will accelerate only gradually, we expect... 7th April 2022 · 24 mins read
Europe Economics Update High inflation isn’t all down to pandemic and energy Pandemic-related effects and higher energy prices have played a significant part in pushing up inflation in the euro-zone, but domestically-generated “underlying” price pressures have increased too... 6th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update NBP steps up its fight against inflation The National Bank of Poland (NBP) unexpectedly delivered its largest interest rate hike in 22 years today (100bp, to 4.50%) to get on top of the deteriorating inflation outlook and we think there’s... 6th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Inflation Watch The point of maximum pain The war in Ukraine has caused price pressures to intensify again and we now expect global headline inflation to be one percentage point higher on average this year than we previously envisaged. Now is... 4th April 2022 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Mar.) Turkey’s headline inflation rate recorded another sharp rise to reach 61.1% y/y in March and it is likely to rise a bit further over the coming months. But there is still little sign that the central... 4th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB cannot ignore surging inflation for long With euro-zone inflation having jumped to 7.5% in March it seems increasingly likely that the ECB will accelerate its plans to tighten monetary policy. We now think it will begin raising rates as soon... 1st April 2022 · 7 mins read
