Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q1 2022) Inflation surged in Q1 and is on track to surpass 6% later this year, exceeding the levels reached around the GST hike in 2000. With trimmed mean inflation already higher than at the start of previous... 27th April 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Rates to rise to 3.00% to rein in price expectations Even though a further surge in CPI inflation to a 40-year high of 10% in October will take the economy to the brink of recession, we think the Bank of England will raise interest rates from 0.75% now... 26th April 2022 · 27 mins read
China Economic Outlook No quick fix this time China’s economy rebounded sharply from the initial COVID-19 outbreak. The recovery will be slower and more muted this time, even if the ongoing COVID outbreak is successfully quashed, as less policy... 26th April 2022 · 21 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf leads the way as Ukraine war drives divergence The Gulf economies will be major beneficiaries from higher energy prices and our growth forecasts sit far above the consensus. Outside the Gulf, higher inflation and tighter fiscal policy will weigh... 25th April 2022 · 25 mins read
Europe Economics Update Three key calls on the euro-zone In our latest European Economic Outlook, we set out three non-consensus forecasts for the euro-zone. First, we think inflation will overshoot expectations this year. Second, the hit that this will... 25th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Inflation surge to prompt more rapid tightening The surge in consumer price inflation in March leads us to think that the Bank of Canada will now rapidly raise its policy rate to 2.5% by the end of the year. 23rd April 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook A year of stagflation The war in Ukraine has delivered a shock to Europe just as it was coming out of the pandemic. Higher energy prices will keep inflation elevated, squeeze household incomes and dent business confidence... 22nd April 2022 · 31 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Apr.) The rise in Mexico’s inflation to 7.7% y/y in the first two weeks of April was driven by a broad based strengthening of price pressures, which will be a concern for the central bank. This, alongside... 22nd April 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Spillovers from war in Ukraine intensifying The perfect storm of surging commodity prices due to the war in Ukraine and the hawkish shift by major DM central banks has pushed a few frontier markets to the brink of sovereign default. Sri Lanka... 22nd April 2022 · 10 mins read
India Economics Weekly PM Johnson trip, NBFC clean up, WPI surges Underpinning UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s visit to India are talks toward a free-trade agreement, which both countries are aiming to have in place before the end of the year. But the early... 22nd April 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA set to hike aggressively this year The minutes of the RBA’s April meeting show that it is coming around to our view that rates will need to be hiked before long. We expect next week’s Q1 CPI data to show inflation surpassing 4%, which... 22nd April 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Mar. 2022) Inflation picked up in March due to a further rise in utilities inflation and a jump in food inflation. And headline inflation will hit 2% in the April data released in just under a month’s time as... 22nd April 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Tighter policy to drive GDP growth below potential Economic activity should expand at a strong pace this year but, with the Bank of Canada set to tighten policy rapidly, we expect the quarterly pace of GDP growth to slow below potential in 2023, as... 21st April 2022 · 19 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook High commodity prices won’t lift all boats The surge in commodity prices will drive stronger regional growth than the consensus expects this year, but not all economies in Latin America will benefit. While Brazil and Colombia will see a terms... 21st April 2022 · 26 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Mar.) Headline inflation rose to 7.4% in March and further increases are likely. This will put a big dent in consumer spending, so we think that 2022 will be a year of stagflation for the euro-zone. 21st April 2022 · 2 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Policy settings under threat but BoJ won’t yield Despite coming under significant pressure in both bond and currency markets in recent weeks, the Bank of Japan will not respond to inflation reaching its 2% target by hiking its short-term policy rate... 21st April 2022 · 8 mins read
