Canada Economics Weekly Firms’ selling price expectations at 10-month low There was some better news from the CFIB Business Barometer and new home sales data this week, although both still point to weak economic growth. Meanwhile, the fall in firms’ selling price... 26th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Angola’s elections, SA price pressures, Ethiopia’s debt President João Lourenço is on course to secure another term following this week’s elections in Angola. With the political backdrop little changed, we think that the economy will revert to its low... 26th August 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Government needs to step up to prevent deep recession The possibility of even bigger increases in the Ofgem utility price cap early next year means that the economy is facing down the barrel of a fairly deep recession. The depth of the recession... 26th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Shipping costs fall in tandem with export orders World trade was broadly unchanged at a high level in June, and timelier data suggest that the continued easing of supply constraints in China helped lift exports in Asia in July. But forward-looking... 26th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Flodén eyeing faster rate rises One does not need to be Nostradamus to see that Martin Flodén will espouse stepping up the pace of monetary tightening when the Executive Board of the Riksbank convenes again, in September. While our... 26th August 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Soaring energy costs, wage inflation trending higher The surge in natural gas prices amid supply concerns this week piled on the economic gloom for the euro-zone and we have revised our growth forecasts down further. But price pressures remain intense... 26th August 2022 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Kishida eager to revive nuclear energy August’s Tokyo CPI showed a further jump in electricity prices. Against this backdrop, PM Kishida announced that he wants to restart more nuclear reactors and build new ones, but it remains unclear... 26th August 2022 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Update Our new higher inflation forecast The latest leap in wholesale gas prices means that we now think CPI inflation will rise from 10.1% in July to a peak of 14.5% in January (up from our previous forecast of a peak of 12.5% in October)... 24th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s current account, the peso and FX debts The further widening of Chile’s current account deficit in Q2 combined with an increased reliance on portfolio inflows leave the Chilean peso vulnerable to a deterioration in investor risk appetite... 24th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Could cheap Norwegian gas fix Europe’s energy crisis? One left-field option for alleviating Europe’s gas crisis that has been doing the rounds is the potential for asking Norway to discount the price of its gas exports. This Update looks at eight key... 24th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Deeper recession, inflation to hit 10% The continued surge in European gas prices, and likelihood that they will remain extremely high, means that the euro-zone will probably suffer a deeper recession than we had previously anticipated. It... 24th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (August 2022) The further fall in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 9.6% y/y in the first two weeks of August was mainly due to tax cuts on energy and masks the fact that underlying price pressures remain strong... 24th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Rental boom keeps construction elevated The surge in interest rates so far this year has contributed to a sharp decline in home sales but, so far at least, that has not weighed on construction activity. Housing starts averaged 279,000... 24th August 2022 · 9 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Aug.) The stronger-than-expected rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 8.6% y/y in the first two weeks of August raises the risk that Banxico pushes through another 75bp interest rate hike at next... 24th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update State bearing the cost of lower French energy bills France’s low energy inflation rate relative to those of its neighbours reflects government policies that have limited the increase in retail prices even as wholesale prices have risen. This will... 24th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jul.) The latest rise in inflation in South Africa to 7.8% y/y in July will raise the pressure on Reserve Bank officials to continue tightening policy aggressively. Even as signs of a faltering economy... 24th August 2022 · 3 mins read
