Asia Economics Weekly Rates hikes coming in the Philippines, markets resilient Rising inflationary pressures in the Philippines mean the country’s central bank is likely to raise interest rates by 50bp at its meeting next week. Bank Indonesia is also likely to raise rates, but... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Trouble for EM assets probably far from over Even though emerging market (EM) assets generally weakened again over the past month, and some have now fallen a very long way, we still forecast that there is considerably more pain to come. 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB dovish amid concerns about franc strength The Swiss National Bank stuck firmly to its ultra-accommodative policy stance today and sounded more downbeat about the outlook, revising down its medium-term inflation forecasts in light of the... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Weak balance sheets come under the spotlight Balance sheets in the largest MENA economies have received a lot of attention over the past couple of years, but more recently there has been increasing scrutiny of those in some of the region’s... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Trade may trump rates as a driver of the US dollar Judging by what has happened in recent months, President Trump’s attitude to global trade could remain a more important driver of the US dollar than the prospects for monetary policy in the US and... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Why rate hikes in Thailand would be a bad idea The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left its policy rate unchanged at 1.50% today, but the hawkish tone of accompanying statement suggests that rate hikes are in the pipeline. With inflationary pressures very... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Our new interest rate & Australian dollar forecasts Our new forecast that the Reserve Bank of Australia won’t raise interest rates from the record low of 1.5% until late in 2020 compares to the consensus view that lift-off will take place late next... 17th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sweden’s election dead heat no big deal for Riksbank Political uncertainty following Sweden’s general election last weekend is unlikely to meaningfully alter the Riksbank’s plans to start tightening policy around the turn of the year. Meanwhile, in... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Peso plunges, Korea’s labour market woes continue A widening trade deficit in the Philippines has put renewed downward pressure on the peso over the past week, creating a further headache for the central bank. Meanwhile, in Korea, the recent weakness... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Diaspora to the rescue? The continued weakness of the rupee has triggered speculation this week that policymakers are about to adopt special measures to shore up the currency. One possibility is the reintroduction of a... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Where are the risks greatest for EM currencies? Although they have recovered a touch in the past couple of days, emerging market (EM) currencies have generally slumped against the dollar since mid-April. These falls shed light on which are most... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Aug.) Last month’s currency crises in Turkey and Argentina triggered broad-based weakness in EM financial markets, but our Capital Flows Tracker suggests that aggregate outflows were relatively modest. 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Brexit uncertainty to keep MPC in state of inertia Brexit uncertainty has driven sterling lower in recent months and is likely to mean that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) keeps interest rates on hold for some time. But provided a Brexit deal is... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank steps up to the plate The aggressive interest rate hike delivered by Turkey’s central bank has soothed the markets, but the next thing to watch will be the reaction of President Erdogan. Any sign that he will try to... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How far do real interest rates rise in a currency crisis? In previous EM currency crises, real interest rates have increased (on average) by around 10.5%-11.0%-pts in the following year and remained more than 6.5%-pts above pre-crisis levels over the... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How do EMs adjust after a currency crisis? In the three years after a currency crisis, EMs almost always experience a collapse in imports, but the performance of exports is more mixed. Argentina looks similar to those economies that have seen... 12th September 2018 · 1 min read
