China Data Response FX Reserves (Oct.) The PBOC appears to have intervened directly in the foreign exchange market again in October. But its intervention remains small in scale and seems calibrated to slow the renminbi’s fall rather than... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets still sanguine on rate outlook The hawkish tone of the Bank of England’s “Super Thursday” announcements have helped to push up interest rate expectations a little and have fuelled a rise in sterling over the past week. But we doubt... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Financial conditions tightening in several EMs Strains in the balance of payments of some EMs last quarter seem to have been driven mainly by a decline in flows to bond markets. These flows now seem to have stabilised, but financial conditions... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Consensus too optimistic on the loonie With investors already pricing in three more rate hikes from the Bank of Canada, it’s hard to see much support for the consensus view that the Canadian dollar will rise by 5% from here. We think that... 5th November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss outlook darkens, Riksbank rate rises ahead Surveys published this week suggest that the Swiss economy is faltering after a strong first half of 2018, while inflationary pressures remain weak. This supports our view that the SNB will keep... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Short-term pain, long-term gain for EM equities? Although the gap between the valuations of equities in emerging and developed markets has widened recently, and is now quite large by historical standards, this is no guarantee that the former will... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Italy’s problems shouldn’t stop euro’s revival in 2019 Although Italy’s problems are likely to continue to weigh on the euro next year, we still think that the currency will strengthen against the dollar in response to a favourable shift in monetary... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Last month’s rebound in the US dollar is unlikely to last Although some of things that triggered a rebound in the US dollar in October are likely to continue to underpin the currency in 2019, we still think that it will weaken then as the Fed stops raising... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya & Uganda: Inflation will remain within target Price pressures eased in Kenya and Uganda in October, and we think that inflation will remain within target in both countries. Kenyan policymakers will probably keep their key rate on hold in 2019... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Political risks back on the radar Political developments have re-emerged as a key risk to the region’s economic outlook in recent weeks. The economic fallout for Saudi Arabia from the Khashoggi scandal should be limited, at least in... 30th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Amlo starting to show his true colours The direct impact on Mexico’s economy resulting from president-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s decision to scrap the Texcoco airport project will be small, but it is the clearest sign yet that... 30th October 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank and Norges Bank signal rate rises ahead While both the Riksbank and the Norges Bank kept monetary policy unchanged this week, they signalled in their policy statements that they intend to raise interest rates in the coming months. With... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier external risks still a big concern A handful of the more vulnerable Frontier Markets, including Ukraine, Pakistan and Bahrain, have received (or are close to getting) IMF or bilateral funding, but external risks remain a key concern... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank aiming for at least three more hikes As well as hiking interest rates to 1.75% this week, the Bank of Canada explicitly confirmed that it intends to raise the policy rate back to its estimate of the neutral rate. We doubt it will make it... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil and Argentina: reform hopes rising… for now The sharp rallies in the Argentine peso and Brazilian real reflect growing optimism that economic policymaking will improve in both countries, but markets seem to be looking through the political... 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Regional growth slowed in Q3 After a strong Q2, growth in Emerging Europe as a whole slowed in Q3, from 3.5% y/y to around 2.8% y/y. In Russia and Poland, this slowdown has been relatively gradual and driven by weakness in... 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
