Africa Economics Update Africa: A weak month for local markets Most African currencies weakened against the US dollar this month, but avoided the sharp falls seen elsewhere in the EM world. Zambian markets, however, struggled due to fears of hidden debts. 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Pulling down our currency forecasts We expected 2018 to be a year of weakness for Latin American currencies, but the recent falls against the dollar have pushed a number of exchange rates through our year-end forecasts already. We’re... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: tighter financial conditions point to sharp slowdown The plunge in the Turkish lira and dislocation in local markets in recent weeks has resulted in a severe tightening of broader financial conditions. Past experience suggests that a tightening on the... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Will the dollar continue to recover? The dollar has continued to recover over the past month. This has coincided with a further increase in the gap between 10-year government bond yields in the US and elsewhere. Although this gap began... 24th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Relief for the Turkish lira proves fleeting Turkey has been in the grips of a currency crisis which forced the central bank to hike interest rates by 300bp on 23rd May, but that only provided brief respite for the lira. For now, there are signs... 24th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina not (yet) facing a public debt crisis Despite the near-25% drop in the peso against the dollar so far this year, Argentina is not yet facing a sovereign debt crisis. The public debt ratio will rise this year, but not to an alarming level... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: near-term outlook is bright Egypt’s economy has weathered the fallout from the pound’s devaluation in late-2016 and, as fiscal consolidation slows and inflation and interest rates drop back, growth should remain robust over the... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lira collapse to trigger rate hikes The plunge in the Turkish lira over the past few days has been steeper than that which triggered abrupt monetary tightening in 2014 and 2017. We expect the MPC to hold an interim meeting over the... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack BJP still in strong position despite Karnataka setback The BJP’s failure to form a coalition despite winning by far the most seats in the Karnataka state election is a setback for the ruling national party, with the main opposition Congress and the local... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is the sterling boost over? While the beneficial effects on exports of the pound’s depreciation may now be fading somewhat, it is too early to conclude that the sterling boost to growth is over. 22nd May 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update No need to panic about the rupee The slide in the rupee since the start of the year has raised concerns in some quarters over a repeat of the “Taper Tantrum”, which began five years ago today. But this seems unlikely. The external... 22nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus How will monetary policy influence the markets? We think that interest rates in the US and elsewhere will diverge by more than investors are anticipating over the next year or so, but then converge in a way that they are not envisaging. We expect... 21st May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The Taper Tantrum five years on The sell-off that has gripped EM financial markets over the past few weeks has raised parallels with the Taper Tantrum that occurred almost five years ago to the day. However, economic and financial... 21st May 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Renminbi resilient amidst EM currency sell-off With rising US bond yields putting EM currencies under pressure, the renminbi stands out as a beacon of stability. It has only edged down against the dollar and has continued strengthening in trade... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further hikes likely in Indonesia amid rupiah worries The performance of the rupiah will continue to determine the near-term outlook for monetary policy in Indonesia. With the currency likely to remain under downward pressure as Treasury yields in the US... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Does the Argentine peso have much further to fall? Following its near-20% drop so far this year, Argentina’s real effective exchange rate looks pretty close to its ‘fair’ value – we estimate that it probably needs to fall by a modest 5% or so from... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
