Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Is Lebanon lurching towards a crisis? Lebanon’s recent political deadlock has reignited fears over the country’s weak balance sheets. A fresh escalation of tensions with the Gulf is still a major threat and, as we’ve warned before, this... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Labour gaining the upper hand Summer bonuses rose the most since 1991 this year. That is partly a reflection of the surge in corporate profits in recent years. But workers are earning more than their fair share of the pie. Labour... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will weaker currencies help or hinder EMs? The improvement in EM balance sheets over the past five years means that macroeconomic strains resulting from recent currency falls have been contained to Turkey and Argentina. Nonetheless, those EMs... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly RBI intervention, GDP doubts, Delhi protests The latest slide in the rupee appears finally to have jolted the RBI into action, with widespread reports of intervention today. We doubt that this will draw a line under the rupee’s decline... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Aug.) The People’s Bank still appears reluctant to deploy its FX reserves in order to support the renminbi. We suspect that it is leaning on state-owned financial institutions to sell foreign assets in its... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Downgrading our forecasts for Argentina The recent turmoil in local markets means that Argentina’s recession will be even deeper than we previously anticipated. We now expect a 4% drop in GDP over 2018 as a whole (vs. -0.5% previously), and... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What next for the Indonesian rupiah? Supporting the rupiah is increasingly becoming the central pre-occupation for Bank Indonesia and the government. We think the central bank will raise interest rates at least twice more before the end... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Assessing the economic impact of recent market falls The macro impact of the recent falls in Asian markets is likely to be relatively small for most economies. The exceptions are the Philippines and Indonesia, where weaker currencies have forced... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Five points on the EM sell-off The EM sell-off appears to have become more broad-based in the last few days, although there is little evidence that – outside Turkey and Argentina – the market turmoil is resulting in macroeconomic... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: fresh pound weakness still on the cards The Central Bank of Egypt appears to have intervened to support the pound in recent months, but we expect the authorities to loosen their grip over the next couple of years. We have pencilled in a 10%... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack The resilience of the US stock market is unlikely to last Large-cap equities have generally continued to make headway in the US since the end of July, despite the fact that they have fallen in much of the rest of the developed world. Historically, equities... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina relapses, Mexican peso muted on trade deal The sense of crisis that engulfed Argentina on Wednesday and Thursday seems to have eased today and, while there is a clear risk that the currency falls further in the near term, based on the real... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss franc strength unlikely to last The Swiss franc has strengthened against the euro this week, but we doubt that this will last. Meanwhile, we think that Sweden’s forthcoming general election is unlikely to have much of a... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A closer look at EM external financing risks The sell-off in EM currencies has cast the spotlight onto external vulnerabilities in the emerging world, although there are important nuances to take into account. In this Update, we take a closer... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines to scrap rice quotas, new tax in Malaysia The Philippines looks to be on the verge of passing legislation to allow in more rice imports. If the bill passes, it should lead to a sharp drop in inflation and would reduce the pressure for further... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Argentina back in crisis The sell-off in the Argentine peso this month gathered pace after the government’s impromptu request to draw down more of its IMF bailout. Rather than soothing market tensions, this reinforced... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
