Global Markets Update Will the joint sell-off in EM currencies and bonds last? The recent widespread weakness of emerging market (EM) currencies has been accompanied by a rise in local currency bond yields in almost all EMs. But even if currencies generally continue to slide, as... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will Fed and ECB policy keep driving dollar/euro? The movements in dollar/euro over the past few days are a reminder that Fed and ECB policy are still important drivers of the exchange rate. Our view remains that their policies will provide ongoing... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Currency sell-off tests resolve of some central banks History suggests that the sell-off in EM currencies over the past couple of months could be large enough to push central banks in Mexico, Brazil and South Africa to raise interest rates – although the... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jun.) Despite the market turmoil of recent weeks, problems in Turkey and Argentina look to be isolated incidents, with our capital flows Tracker giving no indication of large or widespread capital outflows... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack 2% inflation target remains elusive Headline inflation has been falling recently as the impact of the short-lived spike in food prices over the winter has reversed. Energy inflation has continued to slow as utility bills are rising less... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: Latest currency devaluation a stopgap The latest devaluation in the Pakistani rupee has once again put the spotlight on the country’s precarious external position. The government will hope to keep the situation under control until next... 11th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: IMF deal imposes ambitious fiscal targets Confirmation that Argentina has reached an agreement with the IMF over a financing package will help to restore investor confidence and provide a much-needed anchor for the country’s necessary... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank hikes, elections key to rate outlook The Turkish central bank’s decision to hike its one-week repo rate by 125bp, to 17.75%, is a tentative sign that it is shifting its focus away from simply shoring up the lira and towards tackling high... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (May) The latest foreign exchange reserves data are consistent with very little PBOC action in the FX markets. This suggests that the recent resilience of the renminbi relative to other EM currencies... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Real’s fate now lies with political developments The fall in the real over the past couple of months means that, judged on macroeconomic fundamentals at least, the currency no longer looks overvalued. The big risk over the next six months is that... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia and the sanctions impact The imposition of more stringent US financial sanctions in April seems to have resulted in a long-lasting premium in Russia’s currency and bond market. But there has been little convincing evidence of... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Divergence with the dollar unlikely to last In the last month, commodity prices have risen or held steady, despite a sharp appreciation of the US dollar. We think that the long-run inverse relationship will be restored in the second half of... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What next for the Turkish lira? Last week’s emergency rate hike by Turkey’s central bank has caused a rebound in the lira and past experience suggests that the rally may have a bit further to run over the coming weeks. But there are... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Argentina the exception rather than the rule Argentina’s currency crisis has put the spotlight on the country’s growing economic fragilities, but vulnerabilities in the region’s other major economies have diminished in recent years. Current... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi still bucking EM trend The renminbi has weakened a little against the US dollar in recent weeks. But the Chinese currency has continued to appreciate in trade-weighted terms. Meanwhile, the Hong Kong dollar has bounced... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM GDP growth stabilises before the sell-off Our EM GDP Tracker suggests that growth stabilised in Q1 and early signs point to growth having picked up at the start of Q2. The recent market stress is likely to push a handful of economies (notably... 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
