Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Jobs and credit growth set to slow further The downturn in the housing market means that the recent stability of the unemployment rate probably won’t last. We expect jobs growth to slow to 1% next year and the unemployment rate to creep up to... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook Uncertainty reinforces soft housing outlook Rising Brexit uncertainty only reinforces our weak outlook for the housing market. In our most likely scenario, we think transactions will dip this year before edging back up in 2020, all while house... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response FHFA House Prices (Nov.) Annual house price growth was unchanged at 5.8% in November, but it is likely to resume its downward trend in 2019. While mortgage interest rates are set to fall back, a slowing economy will weigh on... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Government attempts to woo SMEs Election giveaways in India have been ramped up significantly this month, with small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) the main beneficiaries. Firms with annual sales of less than INR0.4m are now... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Dec.) Strong mortgage demand over the past couple of weeks indicates that the sharp fall in existing home sales in December will soon be reversed. But a slowing economy, weakening house price expectations... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus This time won’t be different We believe that the downturn in Australia’s housing market will become by far the deepest and longest on record. By curbing dwellings investment, consumption and bank lending, we think it will result... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Home sales fall, inflation to drop back The data this week confirmed that Canadian home sales finished 2018 on a weak note, while inflation jumped back up to 2% at the end of the year. Housing sales are unlikely to rebound strongly, while... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Why we now expect the RBA to cut rates Australia’s housing downturn is deepening. Prices will probably fall by more than we had previously anticipated and the drag from falling dwellings investment will be larger. The experience from... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Earnings accelerate, but rents won’t follow suit The acceleration in earnings growth to close to a 10-year high in December will not boost rental growth. While stronger earnings will support rental demand, the large number of new apartments being... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q4) Credit availability for both commercial and residential property tightened in Q4, and with Brexit uncertainty likely to be extended, that trend looks set to persist. 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update House prices most vulnerable in Hong Kong & Canada Several of the world’s most overvalued housing markets have taken a turn for the worse, and history suggests the risks of large house price corrections are greatest where monetary conditions are... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Housing downturn will force RBA to cut rates We think that 2019 will be the year in which previous excesses in Australia’s housing market will catch up with the economy. We believe that the deepening housing downturn will become a far bigger... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Dec.) December’s RICS data support our view that the housing market will stay weak in 2019. Indeed, with Brexit uncertainty set to be extended, we expect little or no growth in transactions this year. 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK House Price Index (Nov.) While annual house price growth was broadly flat in November, we expect price inflation to slow across 2019. That will be driven by the high level of house prices and interest rate normalisation, as... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Why our house price forecast is bottom of the pack Our forecast for a rise in house prices of 2% in 2019 is close to the bottom of consensus. That view is supported by evidence that housing market conditions have loosened, and that the size of... 15th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Housebuilding (Q3) Housing starts surged in Q3, but we doubt that marks the start of a new, upward trend. Indeed, with the wider housing market set to stay weak and Help-to-Buy on the way out, we expect housing starts... 15th January 2019 · 1 min read
