US Housing Market Update Drop in rates won’t trigger a surge in house prices A decline in mortgage interest rates from the start of 2012 was an important factor behind the rise in house prices in recent years. But we don’t think the upcoming drop in interest rates will have... 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will prime central London continue to struggle? Prime central London (PCL) house prices held up better than we expected in 2018, though the underlying trend remained weak. The outlook is unlikely to change in 2019 with economic uncertainty... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jan.) The drop in new home sales in January came from an upwardly revised December figure, so sales haven’t lost too much momentum going into 2019. Looking ahead, a slowing economy argues against a strong... 14th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Can house prices boom again? In recent decades, falling mortgage interest rates have allowed home buyers to borrow more relative to their incomes. But that support for house prices has now been exhausted. Indeed, our long-run... 14th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Feb.) The new buyer enquiries balance fell to a post-crisis low in February, but we doubt that a crash is imminent. That view is consistent with surveyors’ expectations, which anticipate a small improvement... 14th March 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Jan. & Feb.) The latest data suggest that economic conditions remained weak at the start of 2019, with developers paring back property construction and infrastructure spending underwhelming. 14th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus One million vacant homes a risk to our forecasts If a large number of the over one million homes being kept vacant as the owner does not wish to sell were to be brought to market, house prices are likely to drop by 5% to 10%. But while slowing house... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet House Prices (Feb.) The 0.4% monthly drop in the Teranet House Price Index equates to a 0.1% fall in seasonally-adjusted terms. That pushed the annual pace of house price inflation below 2% and we expect it to remain... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Sharp divergence in new and existing home sales A fall in existing home sales in January, to a three year low, suggests that the housing market slowdown that began in 2018 continued into 2019. Indeed, even after a decline in mortgage interest rates... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Statistics (Q4) Lending terms did not materially loosen in Q4, despite evidence of a pick-up in competitive pressures among lenders. Looking ahead, with uncertainty weighing in the near-term, and interest rates... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jan.) The good news that single-family starts saw their largest month-on-month gain for 40-years was tempered to some extent by a drop in building permits to an 18-month low, which implies that surge will... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market uncertainty intensifies Conditions in the housing market have seen no improvement over the last month. Indeed, the data suggest that new buyer enquiries deteriorated at its fastest rate since the financial crisis. Looking... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Feb.) We wouldn’t put too much weight on the jump in house prices recorded by the Halifax index. Indeed, with all signs pointing to falling demand and weakening buyer sentiment, we think prices will rise by... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Feb.) The surge in home purchase demand seen in January was reversed in February, even as mortgage interest rates edged back to their lowest level in a year. That dynamic is likely to continue over the next... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Jan.) January’s surprise jump in house purchase mortgage approvals shouldn’t be overplayed. Given the weak data on buyer demand and house price expectations falling, we expect mortgage approvals to weaken... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Investment will be a drag on growth before long Data on investment spending released this week sent conflicting messages. We put more weight on the dismal construction work done figures and have penciled in falling business investment in the fourth... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
