Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Tighter credit conditions will weigh on growth The latest NAB survey showed that firms are facing the largest difficulties getting finance since 2012, which suggests that credit growth may slow sharply. (See Chart 1.) That may be a reflection of... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack A mixed year for markets 2018 has been a mixed bag for India’s financial markets. The bond market has seen significant gyrations, only for yields to end the year virtually flat from 12 months ago. Meanwhile, the 7% rise in... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Nov.) Existing home sales rose for the second consecutive month in November, and a recovery in mortgage demand over the past month suggests they will see further gains over the turn of the year. But with... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK House Price Index (Oct.) House price growth slowed to its lowest rate since 2013 in October, and we expect that cooldown to continue into 2019. Indeed, even if Brexit deal is struck, we expect annual house price growth of... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Nov.) Single-family housing starts dropped to an 18-month low in November, but we expect a modest rise in starts over the next couple of years. Builders have scaled back production in response to slowing... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Will house price falls in the UK be confined to London? London‘s house prices have been falling for much of the last year and we see this as only the start of a correction. But this is the result of specific factors relating to the capital and further... 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update London rental growth at an inflection point Leading indicators suggest that, not long after it started, the dip in London rents will soon end. Indeed, on the back of rising tenant demand and weak supply growth, we think rental growth in the... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Fiscal outlook improving, housing outlook bleak The rapid improvement in the budget deficit will allow the government to use the upcoming Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook to deliver some early Christmas presents. But the Treasurer will probably... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Nov.) Investment and consumption both appear to have cooled last month, with softer foreign demand also weighing on industrial production. We think further weakness is on the horizon. 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Nov.) November’s fall in buyer enquiries and sales instructions is consistent with our view that there will be no revival in the housing market next year. Indeed, with the pipeline of housing sales... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Lower interest rates not enough to boost home sales We expect home sales will end 2020 only slightly higher than they are today. Admittedly, the drop in mortgage interest rates seen over the past few weeks has given a boost to mortgage applications... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet House Prices (Nov.) & Cap. Utilisation (Q3) Base effects caused annual house price inflation to rise again in November, but it will decline in the coming months. Meanwhile, the sharp fall in capacity utilisation in the third quarter is another... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Are risks brewing in Korea’s housing market? A surge in lending to the property sector and booming prices in the capital, Seoul, are unlikely to cause serious problems for Korea’s economy. 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Record housing downturns in Sydney and Melbourne We estimate that house prices in Sydney will eventually decline by 20% from their peak and by 17% in Melbourne. This would make the downturn in each city the largest in modern history. The slowdown in... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Dip in mortgage interest rates boosts housing demand A drop in mortgage interest rates in November led to a welcome boost in mortgage demand, which has risen to a five-month high. That should provide some support to home sales over the next month or two... 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market slowdown to continue Our outlook for the housing market is weak. Admittedly, the recent rise in mortgage approvals and housing transactions offered a little relief for the market. But leading indicators suggest that those... 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
