US Housing Market Update Rising participation to provide less of a lift to housing The participation rate for younger Americans had risen to a 10-year high by the end of 2018, with women driving most of that gain. That will have supported both rental and home purchase demand. But... 12th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market stumbles along House price growth has slowed to a near standstill, while mortgage approvals are falling. Much of that reflects the high level of house prices, although Brexit uncertainty is increasingly taking its... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Surge in mortgage applications will prove short-lived Mortgage applications for home purchase briefly touched a nine-year high in the middle of January, as a drop in mortgage interest rates tempted home buyers back into the market. However, even as... 7th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Jan.) While house prices have some downward momentum, we don’t think that heralds the start of a sustained fall. Rather, we expect house price growth to maintain its sluggish pace in 2019. 7th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jan.) A drop in mortgage interest rates to a nine-month low in January helped boost mortgage demand. But the jump in applications for home purchase is already unwinding. Given a slowing economy and lack of... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Royal Commission will add to slowing credit growth The final report by the Royal Commission may add to the changes in bank behaviour that are already underway. However, the report did not recommend much that is likely to cause an upheaval for the... 4th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Mortgage rates to fall despite cut in Fed MBS holdings The reduction in MBS held on the Fed’s balance sheet is, for now, set to continue in 2019. But while the announcement of MBS purchases in late 2008 led to a sharp drop in mortgage rates, we don’t... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Could leasehold reforms raise house prices? Plans to limit the creation of new leaseholds, as well as to cap ground rents, are unlikely to raise newbuild house prices. Meanwhile, developers could see a small hit to their margins, at least in... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA’s optimism faces reality check The RBA will probably continue to signal that the next move in rates is up at Tuesday’s meeting. But with mounting signs that the housing downturn is spreading to other parts of the economy and price... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jan.) House prices have now fallen 7.6% from their peak and the pace of declines in recent months leads us to believe prices may now fall 15% from peak to trough. We believe such a large downturn would... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Nov.) New home sales surged 16.9% m/m in November, but activity is likely to level off in 2019. While mortgage rates are set to drop back, a slowing economy will weigh on buyer sentiment, and that will keep... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Jan.) January’s very weak result for house price growth was unexpected, but we don’t think it heralds the start of a sustained decline in prices. Indeed, assuming a Brexit deal is done, we think prices will... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Dec.) After falling sharply in November, house purchase mortgage approvals fell once more in December – consistent with our weak outlook for lending. Indeed, even if a Brexit deal is agreed by the end of... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Nov.) House prices are on track to grow by 5% in 2018, down marginally from a rise of 6.3% in 2017. That gradual easing in price growth will continue, as housing demand flat lines on the back of a slowing... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Shutdown will lift delinquencies, but not foreclosures Households struggling to pay their mortgage thanks to the government shutdown will be offered forbearance. That won’t prevent a rise in the mortgage delinquency rate, but with back pay guaranteed it... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK Finance Mortgage Lending (Dec.) Mortgage approvals suffered a second successive monthly decline in December, suggesting that the outlook for lending remains subdued against a backdrop of high house prices and expected rises in... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
