UK Commercial Property Chart Pack

UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Dec. 25)

Rental growth has ended the year on a strong note, but with yields stable total returns are beginning to ease from their recent level of around 8% y/y. And with yields set to see little movement over...

17th December 2025 · 1 min read

Global Commercial Property Chart Pack

Global Commercial Property Chartpack (Q4 2025)

Global property returns have improved in 2025, though performance in APAC and the US has lagged Europe. This divergence is set to continue in 2026. However, we expect performance in the US will...

17th December 2025 · 0 mins read

APAC Commercial Property Update

Rental growth will help Japan defy the squeezed yield spread

Rising interest rates in Japan have raised concerns about whether this will slow investment activity and exert downward pressure on capital values. Our view is that while the risk-free rate will...

16th December 2025 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Rapid Response

US Commercial Property Lending (Nov. 25)

Net lending by banks to commercial real estate jumped to $13.8bn in November, the strongest monthly outturn since February 2023. That followed a strong month for net lending in October, and as a...

12th December 2025 · 1 min read

UK Commercial Property Update

IPF UK Commercial Property Consensus Forecasts (Dec. 25)

The December IPF consensus survey forecasted all-property total returns of 7.8% p.a. over 2025-29, more-or-less unchanged from September. Indeed, the total return forecast has been stable for all of...

12th December 2025 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

What does the Budget mean for UK commercial property?

With our 10-year gilt yield forecast unchanged and the impact of changes to business rates broadly revenue neutral over the next five year years, we are not changing are commercial property forecasts...

11th December 2025 · 4 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Outlook

Commercial property recovery losing steam

The recovery in European commercial property values is slowing and we think this will continue as soft economic growth weighs on rents and elevated interest rates limit yield-driven capital gains...

11th December 2025 · 23 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Q4 PREA consensus trimmed forecasts again, but not enough

The Q4 PREA consensus downgraded the all-property forecast for 2026-29. Even so, the consensus is still notably more optimistic than us. Indeed, stretched valuations mean we expect a modest rise in...

9th December 2025 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

New office forecasts for seven regional UK cities

We have augmented our UK Commercial Property coverage with the addition of office forecasts for seven major regional cities. Overall performance is informed by our views on the RoUK market, but...

9th December 2025 · 6 mins read

Global Commercial Property Update

Key themes for global commercial real estate in 2026

As the new year approaches, we are highlighting the key themes that we think will set the overarching narrative for global commercial real estate in 2026.

5th December 2025 · 4 mins read

US Commercial Property Outlook

Retail shines in a disappointing recovery

Below-trend economic growth and high interest rates will continue to weigh on all-property total returns, which we think will average just 5.5% p.a. over 2026-30. Of the major sectors, we think retail...

4th December 2025 · 21 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

S&P Global/CIPS UK Construction PMI (Nov. 25)

The headline CIPS construction PMI fell for the second consecutive month to a new post-pandemic low of 39.4 in November. The drop was broad-based across the sectors, with the housing balance seeing a...

4th December 2025 · 1 min read

Europe Commercial Property Update

European residential outperformance to persist over 2026-30

Residential rent growth is set to slow over the next couple of years as wage growth moderates, but we expect it to remain above past averages given tight supply conditions. Meanwhile, we think yields...

2nd December 2025 · 4 mins read

APAC Commercial Property Outlook

Narrow yield spreads to limit size and speed of the recovery

Asia-Pacific property faces a slow, uneven recovery as high risk-free rates and weak growth limit investment demand and therefore, prospects for yield-driven capital gains. Spreads over risk-free...

2nd December 2025 · 18 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

Lending to UK commercial property (Oct. 25)

At £1.47bn, net lending to commercial property softened again in October, from the £1.65bn recorded in September. That pushed the three-month total down to £5.7bn, the lowest level since June.

1st December 2025 · 2 mins read