US Commercial Property Focus Remote working to hit office income by 20-25% 6th August 2020 · 25 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q2 2020) As expected, all-property total returns turned negative in Q2, led lower by sharp markdowns in the retail and hotel sectors. And, while rental values and capital values fell in all sectors last... 27th July 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Are we too gloomy about industrial? The strength of industrial take-up in Q2 was driven by a ramp-up in delivery capacity, particularly by supermarkets and Amazon. Along with the continued upward trend in the MSCI monthly data, this... 24th July 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Short, sharp, downturn will prevent major LTV breaches Debt covenants generally look less stretched in this downturn than during the GFC. And, although interest cover ratios are relatively low in some REIT sub-sectors, the short, sharp, fall in capital... 16th July 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Property after the pandemic Global property markets are expected to see a lasting impact from the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak. Over the coming weeks, we will publish a series of pieces looking at the post-pandemic future... 15th July 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Jun.) Total debt secured against real estate nudged lower again in June. More timely weekly data point to signs that residential lending has already begun to grow again as housing demand has surged, but we... 10th July 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update CMBS bondholders face mounting risks CMBS delinquencies have risen sharply in recent months, yet we aren’t expecting a repeat of the real estate debt meltdown witnessed in the GFC. However, non-performing loan rates are especially high... 8th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Athens retail: best of a bad bunch While the quicker than anticipated pick-up in high frequency data has meant that the fall in Greek economic activity is likely smaller than initially feared, retail rents are still set to drop sharply... 3rd July 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Major Office Markets Outlook (Q2 2020) With the largest fall in occupier demand expected in New York City and San Francisco, and completions staying relatively strong in Los Angeles and SF, we expect these cities to see the largest rental... 26th June 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Are forecasters now too pessimistic about retail rents? The latest IPF Consensus Forecasts revealed sharper than expected downgrades for the next few years, largely based on revisions to retail rents. Our views are now above this consensus, though we don’t... 12th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update How has office output fared? Even though working from home has meant business as usual for many office occupiers, weak activity elsewhere has still caused euro-zone office output to fall. With the economic recovery expected to be... 11th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Scandi offices to prove more resilient than euro-zone Timely activity indicators suggest that the Scandinavian economies are already on the gradual path to normality, which will provide support to occupier demand and, in turn, prime office rents this... 10th June 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Rise in Central London vacancy to hurt office rents A reasonable proportion of the Central London office completions for this year are likely to be pushed into 2021, but a fall in employment will hit demand for office space and lead to a pick-up in... 9th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Crash in cross-border flows to hit southern Europe hard Markets that are most reliant on international capital will inevitably bear the brunt of the collapse in cross-border flows as investors remain very cautious in the face of COVID-19-related... 2nd June 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update ULI Consensus Forecast (Spring 2020) Forecasts for all indicators in 2020 have shown a marked deterioration since the interim year-end 2019 forecast published in January. While the consensus sector ranking is in line with our March... 21st May 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Which retail markets are most exposed to COVID-19? Before the virus outbreak, falls in prime retail rents were expected to be concentrated in Northern European markets. Now rental falls are likely to spread throughout Southern and Central Eastern... 14th May 2020 · 12 mins read
